‘Only One Step Away From A Global Trade War’


Valentin Katasonov of Strategic-Culture.org posted the following:

Only One Step Away From A Global Trade War

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 effectively terminated the process of globalization. In 2015 world trade suddenly dropped by more than 10% for the first time since 2009. Nothing like this has been seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. But some politicians, public figures, scholars, and journalists continue to talk about globalization as an «objective» and «progressive» process, even though it has already ended.

The world has embarked on a new era. …

Donald Trump jumped nimbly onto this bandwagon with campaign slogans promising to revitalize America’s weakened position in world trade – mostly by relying on protectionist measures:

First – he would halt the negotiations to draft the Transatlantic Partnership Agreement between the US and the EU and refuse to ratify the already-signed Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.

Second, he would either find a way out of NAFTA or would completely revise the terms of that treaty with the other parties (Canada and particularly Mexico).

Third, he would use bilateral agreements to frame American trade and economic relations with the rest of the world, while simultaneously moving away from a policy of multilateral or even global regulation of world trade (to the extent that the US is ready to refuse to take part in the work of the WTO).

Fourth, he would completely revise the terms of America’s trade and economic relations with China: increasing the typical level of import duties on Chinese goods to an average of 45% and adopting protectionist measures in connection with what is known as Beijing’s currency war (the artificially weak yuan compared to the US dollar).

Obviously the dogged and headlong pursuit of such a consistently protectionist program could not only strain relations with many of Washington’s trading partners, but could even trigger a trade war.  …

Trump’s protectionist mantras are already being echoed around the world. America’s trading partners are considering retaliatory measures. … The flames of a global trade war could flare up even before Donald Trump moves into the Oval Office. … Isolated trade-war hot spots that are starting to smolder in different parts of the world could quickly converge into a single major, global, trade-war conflagration. 12/12/16 http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/12/12/only-one-step-away-from-global-trade-war.html

The idea that we could be looking at a coming trade war is not a new one. Part of the reason for World War II was essentially a trade war, that turned into an actual war between the USA and Japan.

Over thirty years ago, Gene Hogberg of the old Worldwide Church of God wrote the following:

Prepare for Trade War

THE Free World’s 40-year period of unprecedented prosperity may soon come to a crashing halt. Support in the United States — the West’s leading trading nation — for maintaining free trade is crumbling fast.

Instead, there reverberate in the halls of Congress warnings to trade partners to open markets or face the retaliation of heightened tariffs and quotas. …

Mr. Reagan is painfully aware of where unbridled protectionism could lead. In recently rejecting a protectionist plea from one industry, the President evoked memories of the Depression — era Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. “Some of us remember the 1930s, when the most destructive trade bill in history, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, helped plunge this nation and the world into a decade of depression and despair,” he told a radio audience. “From now on, if the ghost of Smoot-Hawley rears its ugly head in Congress, if Congress creates a depression — making bill, I’ll fight it.”

But the ghost is rising, and support for the President’s trade policy is waning, even from those within his own party.

What Smoot-Hawley Did

Just how disastrous was the Smoot-Hawley bill? The devastating role it played in the Great Depression was explained in the September 5 issue of The Wall Street Journal, in an article written by its editor, Robert L. Bartley. “The stock-market crash of 1929 came in the midst of debate in Congress over the tariff,” wrote Mr. Bartley. “It had spent the year adding item after item to the protection list. In mid — 1930 the Smoot-Hawley Bill became law, with the highest tariffs in the nation’s history.” What might have been an ordinary correction, continued Mr. Bartley, “turned into the Great Depression…. As the international accounts closed down, the world economy choked.” …

Dangerous Security Changes

Other experts warn that American political leaders — responding to calls for immediate competitive relief from their constituents — may be ignoring another lesson of the Great Depression: that the severe contraction of world trade gave added impetus to imperialist surges in Asia and Europe, specifically Japan and Germany.

Since 1945 Japan has chosen the mercantile road as its path to power, prestige and national restoration. Germany, specifically the Federal Republic of Germany, is heavily dependent upon world trade, exporting a full third of its manufactured goods.

Access to the U.S. market is central to the economies of Japan and the other nations of the Pacific Basin, writes National Review executive editor John McLaughlin, “and hence perhaps to their stability.” If protectionism takes hold, what would happen to Japan and to Western Europe, whose economic heart is in Germany? Protectionism, leading to a full-blown trade war, would likely break the extensive joint defense relationships between the U.S. and its primary World War II foes, now allies for the past 40 years.

Americans should then prepare to witness the emergence of a nuclear — armed Japan as well as a nuclear — armed united Europe with Germany at its core. It’s doubtful whether the American public and its elected representatives have thought out the likely end results of actions now under way.

Former Senate majority leader Howard H. Baker Jr. sounded this warning: “The disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was rushed through Congress… and it took 14 years and a world war to straighten out the mess.” (Hogberg G. Prepare for Trade War! Plain Truth, January 1986)

While Gene Hogberg’s timing was premature, it may well be that we will see some type of trade war.

Furthermore, it should be noted that since the election of Donald Trump, Germany has discussed the ‘unthinkable’ idea that it needs its own nuclear weapons (see Germany’s functional stellarator, Donald Trump, and ‘the unthinkable’).

It remains my view that trade issues will be among the factors that will convince the final European Beast power to attack the USA and some of its Anglo-Saxon descended allies.

The fact of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s election may well bring the USA and UK closer together. And they may decide that this means that they can take a tougher stand against Europe’s trade rules, etc.

But, make no mistake on this point, Europe will take steps.

It will take steps diplomatically, contractually, and militarily.

The Bible is clear that Europe will rise up to the world’s basic surprise as a major military (Revelation 13:1-10) and massive trading (cf. Revelation 18) power.

The EU does not care for various positions of Donald Trump or Brexit vote. A real war between Europe and the USA (with the UK basically on the USA’s side) will come as one day Europe will take steps to ‘eliminate the competition’ so to speak (cf. Daniel 8:25; 11:39; USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses).

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