Twelve ‘grey swans’ to watch for in 2017?


Are there things to look out for in 2017?

And what do swans have to do with anything?

Swans are birds. Generally speaking, birds with white feathers.

A ‘black swan’ event is supposedly a major event that occurs that was not considered possible or predictable.

For 2017, the Japanese financial holding company Normura came up with a list of ‘grey swan’ events. Essentially meaning that they are possibly predictable.

CNBC reported the following related to this:

Nomura: Beware these grey swan risks for 2017

December 8, 2016

While black swans are inherently unpredictable, Nomura has pointed to 10 potential grey swans to worry about for 2017.

The black swan concept was popularized by finance professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” The book, noting that it was widely assumed all swans were white until the discovery of black swans, highlighted that outlier, or previously unthought-of, scenarios can some to pass with extreme economic impacts.

But Nomura pointed to what it called the black swan’s cousin, the grey swan.

“These are the unlikely but impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case and risk scenarios of the analyst community,” it said in a note Wednesday, noting it was avoiding the more usual, well-discussed outliers such as a euro-area breakup, a Donald Trump impeachment or a China implosion.

Below is a list of the ten Nomura mentioned, in bold (as reported by CNBC), with my comments below, plus four other events not specifically in Nomura’s ten:

Potential shock 1: U.S. productivity might boom

Chapter 9 of my latest book was titled “Immorality, Donald Trump, and Prophecy.” Is states:

There are some reasons to have some temporary optimism. The longer there is some economic stagnation, the more demand tends to build up, and an increase in demand may prolong the economy. In addition, technological and other developments may temporarily support the U.S. economy.

Some policies of Donald Trump, and even Hillary Clinton, may help.

In addition, because of improvements in various aspects of energy technology (some of which Hillary Clinton supports and more of which Donald Trump seems to support), the U.S.A. may experience even more of an energy export boom, such as with oil and natural gas, etc. that may prolong its days of economic prosperity. But prolonging is likely all that is possible (cf. Daniel 4:27). (p. 105)

Donald Trump’s energy statements are consistent with what I wrote about. It has long been my position at this website that there were carnal steps that the USA could take to improve its economy. Notice something from back in 2012:

Now, on the one hand, the USA has the resources to cut its trade deficits by getting more serious about the use of coal, nuclear power, oil production, shale, natural gas etc., on the other hand, it shackles itself to barely taken advantage of that. But if it did, it carnally-speaking, has a chance to change its position more positively (Norway, for example, owes part of its ranking because of its oil and nuclear energy supplies.) (Thiel B. USA Drops Out of Top Ten Prosperous Nations. COGwriter, November 5, 2012)

Infrastructure, trade, and other policies of the Trump Administration may improve USA productivity. The generally positive direction of the stock market after Donald Trump’s election suggests that many investors are leaning to believing that.

Potential shock 2: China might float its currency

This is something that Donald Trump has essentially called for. This could cause problems for China if it does this as well as problems with trade with the USA if it does not. Despite the ambitions of certain ones for China to lead the world economically in the 21st century, biblically, that role will be assumed by the final Babylonian European power per Revelation 18.

As the Bible teaches:

2 … Babylon the great… 3 … the merchants of the earth have become rich through the abundance of her luxury (Revelation 18:3)

China is NOT Babylon the great, so expect it to have problems that will prevent it from attaining top world leadership (see also Asia in Prophecy).

Potential shock 3: The European Union (EU) could reform, leading the U.K. to re-join

The Bible shows that Europe will reform:

12 “The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast. 13 These are of one mind, and they will give their power and authority to the beast. (Revelation 17:12-13)

But that reformation is opposed to what those in the UK want.

The UK wanted less control from Europe, less integration in Europe, and did not want Europe to develop its own army. The prophesied reorganization of Europe, thence, is the opposite.

Now this does not mean that the UK may not make any deals with Europe (and the Bible teaches that it will try to because of disaster), but despite what it may look like to some, Europe will get together and become a militarily (Revelation 13:4; Daniel 11:39-43), religiously persecuting (Revelation 13:4-18), and economically (Revelation 13:16-18; 18:1-20) dominant player in the world.

The election of Donald Trump has pushed the Europeans to take steps to increase their military and even consider ‘the unthinkable’–a German nuclear weapon (see NATO, Europe, Russia, and Donald Trump).

The combination of the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit vote is moving Europe closer together in a military fashion. This is something to watch in 2017.

Potential shock 4: Japan inflation might surge

Japan has a lot of debt and this could happen. Japan may need to reassess at least part of its relationships with the USA as well as China (see also Japan, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Any Witness? and Japan, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: Prophecy).

Potential shock 5: The U.S. Federal Reserve could be muzzled

Nomura noted that some have viewed President-elect Donald Trump’s loud disapproval of the Fed as a potential attack on the central bank’s independence and potentially opening it up to political meddling.

There was an outside possibility of radical changes, potentially including altering the Fed’s mandate, such as changing the inflation-targeting basis, Nomura said.

More radically, Nomura noted that Trump has “expressed sympathy” for returning to a gold standard.

A Republican Congress, along with Donald Trump, could devastate the US Federal Reserve. We will see.

The problem is that the USA has more debt than any other nation in the history of the world. Donald Trump is expected to increase that debt. Plus, even possibly default on some of it as he has suggested. The Bible warns that a heavily indebted nation will not do well in the end times:

6 “Will not all these take up a proverb against him,
And a taunting riddle against him, and say,
‘Woe to him who increases
What is not his — how long?
And to him who loads himself with many pledges’?
7 Will not your creditors rise up suddenly?
Will they not awaken who oppress you?
And you will become their booty.
8 Because you have plundered many nations,
All the remnant of the people shall plunder you,
Because of men’s blood
And the violence of the land and the city,
And of all who dwell in it. (Habakkuk 2:6-8)

While the above destruction will NOT occur in 2017, ‘pledges’ are expected to increase then. Thus, making the final fall great.

Potential shock 6: Russia may flex its muscles

Yes, Russia may flex itself in Ukraine and elsewhere (see also Russia and Ukraine: Their Origins and Prophesied Future). This flexing, along with the fact that many in Europe are using the election of Donald Trump as an excuse to push for a European army, is likely to be a factor in Europe getting its army.

The Bible teaches that European King of the North, called “He” below, will have a massive army:

25 He shall stir up his power and his courage against the king of the South with a great army. (Daniel 11:25)

Steps moving ultimately towards that army will occur in 2017 (see also Europa, the Beast, and the Book of Revelation).

Potential shock 7: A clearing house may fail

This is also possible. It is also possible that a financial crisis of a great magnitude will occur in Europe. Financial matters will be a factor in Europe ultimately reorganizing and rising up.

The Church of God has taught that for a long time. Notice the following from the late Pastor General Herbert W. Armstrong a sermon on July 7, 1984:

And I can see now, the event that is going to trigger the formation of the reunification in Europe; the resurrection of the medieval Holy Roman Empire that we’ve been looking forward to that is prophesied to come…

But I believe that some event is going to happen suddenly just like out a blue sky that is going to shock the whole world and is going to cause the nations in Europe to realize they must unite! … Well now I think I can see what may be the very event that is going to trigger…that is the economic situation in the world.

While a strong collapse that will quickly unite Europe is not expected in 2017, some steps that way may occur. The election of Donald Trump, also, has been a shock that seems to be leading in the direction of European unity–though expect some problems (cf. Daniel 2:41-43).

Potential shock 8: Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe loses power

In a system like Japan, this may happen. But it may not be that much of a shock (see also Japan, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Any Witness? and Japan, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: Prophecy).

Potential shock 9: Emerging market capital controls may return

If “Trumpflation” causes higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar, emerging markets could face even more pronounced outflows, Nomura noted.

“Countries with very high levels of foreign portfolio investment ownership, particularly volatile currencies, low rates and low foreign-exchange reserves would be at most risk from capital controls,” Nomura said. “They would also be the ones that markets would look to for more disorderly devaluations either before capital controls were tried or after if they failed.”

The Bible prophesies a time of financial controls (Revelation 13:16-18).

Potential shock 10: Paper money may disappear

“We are on the threshold when secure decentralised electronic money and payments systems could replace notes and coins in circulation,” Nomura said, noting that Sweden has already been discussing the prospect.

Nomura said policy makers in developed markets with negative monetary policy rates, such as Europe and Japan, may push in that direction.

In those regions, “people can simply withdraw their money and put it under their mattress to avoid incurring negative rates,” it said. But with “e-holdings,” negative-rate policies can be transmitted to “e-wallets,” encouraging increased consumption, Nomura said.

That could elicit a sharp negative reaction from the public, Nomura noted.

It would cause massive civil unrest if all paper currency were to leave the USA or Europe. India had major problems this Fall when it partially did that. This is not something that the USA or the Euro zone will do in a major way in 2017.

Yet, the prospects of this much control is too appealing to politicians. And yes, Sweden and some other places may first do this. The Europeans have already decided to phase out the 500 euro note (see ‘The End of the 500 Euro Note Could Lead to a Cashless Economy’) and some have wondered if the USA should faze out its $100 bill (Harvard economist advises elimination of the one hundred dollar bill).

In time, Europe will be mainly cashless.

Why can we be certain of that?

Because the Bible has an end time prophecy related to financial controls of the coming European Beast power:

16 He causes all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hand or on their foreheads, 17 and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

18 Here is wisdom. Let him who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man: His number is 666. (Revelation 13:16-18)

The above prophecy was written over 1900 years ago. It was not possibly able to be fulfilled until the 21st century. We are now in a century where cash is being replaced by electronic currency that can be fully tracked.

Thus, to a major degree, a cashless society will be implemented. But not fully in 2017.

Potential shock 11: Civil unrest in the USA and/or Europe

The Bible prophesies “There shall be terror within” (Deuteronomy 32:25).

The mainstream media has been disappointed by the election of Donald Trump. So have various others. Expect to civil demonstrations and civil unrest in the USA. Back in September I predicted this would happen if Donald Trump were elected:

For years I have warned that more civil unrest was coming to the USA. We have already seen a re-emergence of civil unrest already in 2015 and 2016.

That does not mean that I agree that globalists will necessarily trigger it etc. But the media certainly has fanned the flames in the past and I expect them to do more such fanning in the future if Donald Trump were to win.

The USA did have civil unrest for about a week after Donald Trump’s election. Expect the media to be dismayed by some future decisions by the Trump Administration, and expect it to provide ‘moral’ support to protesters. We could see this in 2017.

Potential Shock 12: Change in the Islamic World

Expect the Islamic world to change. Donald Trump has said that he wants to change the nuclear deal with Iran, plus Donald Trump has put forth anti-Islamic State and anti-Islamic immigration statements. He has also suggested that the Islamic world to try to get together to solve its issues.

The Bible prophesies that a power in the lands currently dominated by Islam in North Africa and much of the Middle East will get together and form a confederation led by one called the “King of the South” (Daniel 11:40-43). Steps towards that are expected to occur in 2017.

Furthermore, since the Bible prophesies terrorism from Palestinians and Syrians (cf. Isaiah 9:8-9, 11-12; see also Why Terrorism? Is Terrorism Prophesied?), do not be surprised to see that in 2017.

Nomura mentioned Donald Trump a couple of times and alluded to items related to his expected policies in others.

Expect Donald Trump to cause a variety of shocks in the world. Donald Trump is apocalyptic (watch 13 Ways President-Elect Trump is Apocalyptic).

His election has already affected financial markets, Europe, and other parts of the world and he has not taken office yet.

Jesus said:

33 Take heed, watch and pray; for you do not know when the time is. 34 It is like a man going to a far country, who left his house and gave authority to his servants, and to each his work, and commanded the doorkeeper to watch. 35 Watch therefore, for you do not know when the master of the house is coming — in the evening, at midnight, at the crowing of the rooster, or in the morning — 36 lest, coming suddenly, he find you sleeping. 37 And what I say to you, I say to all: Watch! (Mark 13:33-37)

34 “But take heed to yourselves, lest your hearts be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness, and cares of this life, and that Day come on you unexpectedly. 35 For it will come as a snare on all those who dwell on the face of the whole earth. 36 Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man.” (Luke 21:34-36)

Watch. Watch and pray!

UPDATE 12/11/16: We just put together and uploaded a related video: Twelve ‘grey swan’ events to watch for in 2017?

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

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Why Terrorism? Is Terrorism Prophesied? What does the Bible teach? Which nations may be affected? Here is a link to a related sermon: Terrorism, Christianity, and Islam.
The Arab and Islamic World In the Bible, History, and Prophecy The Bible discusses the origins of the Arab world and discusses the Middle East in prophecy. What is ahead for the Middle East and those who follow Islam? What about the Imam Mahdi? What lies ahead for Turkey, Iran, and the other non-Arabic Muslims? An item of possibly related interest in the Spanish language would be: Líderes iraníes condenan la hipocresía de Occidente y declaran que ahora es tiempo para prepararse para el Armagedón, la guerra, y el Imán Mahdi.
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