Church of God News

COGwriter

US President Donald Trump’s trade plans may spark a major trade war:

June 30, 2017

Trump overrules cabinet, plots global trade war

With the political world distracted by President Trump’s media wars, one of the most consequential and contentious internal debates of his presidency unfolded during a tense meeting Monday in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, administration sources tell Axios.

• The outcome, with a potentially profound effect on U.S. economic and foreign policy, will be decided in coming days.
• With more than 20 top officials present, including Trump and Vice President Pence, the president and a small band of America First advisers made it clear they’re … bent on imposing tariffs — potentially in the 20% range — on steel, and likely other imports.
• The penalties could eventually extend to other imports. Among those that may be considered: aluminum, semiconductors, paper, and appliances like washing machines.

One official estimated the sentiment in the room as 22 against and 3 in favor — but since one of the three is named Donald Trump, it was case closed. https://www.axios.com/exclusive-trump-plots-trade-wars-2450764900.html

June 30, 2017

President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a move that would most likely ignite a major international trade conflict with some of the biggest economies in the world.

According to Jonathan Swan and Mike Allen of the news website Axios, Trump and top administration officials discussed imposing tariffs on major exporters of steel and other goods during a meeting Thursday at the White House.

The tax on imported goods could be about 20%, according to Axios, and may be expanded to goods like paper, semiconductors, aluminum, and large household appliances.

While the intent is to penalize China, a goal of Trump’s dating back to the campaign, officials informed Trump that the tariff would most likely affect other major allies of the US including Canada, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and the UK.

The plan is backed by what Axios described as the “America First” wing of the White House including chief strategist Steve Bannon, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, trade adviser Peter Navarro, and senior policy adviser Stephen Miller.

During the meeting, according to Axios, Trump was told by “over 75%” of the people in attendance that the tariffs were a bad idea but remained in support of the idea because it would excite his die-hard supporters.

Most economists agree that tariffs of the type Trump is considering would set off a major trade war and have devastating economic consequences. There is also a good chance that the move would result in a US recession. http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-steel-tariff-trade-war-with-china-germany-canada-2017-6

June 30, 2017

The officials said they did not expect Trump to make a formal trade announcement until after the upcoming G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, which begins July 7. Trade issues are slated to be a major topic of discussion at the meeting, which Trump will attend.

Still, administration officials said Trump is eager to resolve the issue because trade was such a big part of his campaign messaging, particularly to Midwestern voters in states that were once manufacturing-heavy. Unlike health care and some other policies, Trump has been deeply engaged on trade. …

European Union officials … have warned that they do not believe the United States can plausibly claim a national security exemption from global trade rules to restrict steel imports.

Trump’s actions could bring back memories of former President George W. Bush’s decision in 2002 to slap hefty “safeguard” tariffs on steel imports to give domestic industry time to restructure. That triggered global outrage and a WTO case, which the U.S. lost. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/30/trump-america-first-trade-plan-clash-240123

While there are many issues of “unfair” trade, massive tariffs would affect not only countries that Donald Trump feels are “unfair,” but will also raise costs to Americans. It can be debated if the costs are worth the jobs that would be affected. But it is clear that most economists, and even Donald Trump’s advisors, see problems with attempting to impose massive tariffs.

China, Mexico and Europe have had trade concerns about the USA because of Donald Trump. If massive tariffs are imposed, this will further drive them closer together. Donald Trump’s earlier executive order (see After Trump’s executive order, TPP-related nations start to look to China) against the Tran-Pacific Partnership agreement has already seemed to have helped both China and Europe increase their trade influence in Asia and elsewhere. Mexico has also tried to reach out to Europe because of Donald Trump (watch Donald Trump and Mexico’s future).

The German press put out the following:

30 June 2017

Wilbur Ross … is U.S. President Donald Trump’s commerce secretary …

He demanded that Germany buy raw materials from the United States instead of from Russia, lower tariffs on automobile imports from the U.S. and ensure that America “obtain a larger share” of the European market. Otherwise, he added, the government in Washington, D.C., would have no alternative but to “engage in self-help.” …

Less than a week before the G-20 summit is set to start in Hamburg, the risk is growing that the unpredictable U.S. president could turn the prestigious meeting of world leaders into a fiasco. Environment, refugees, trade: On a long list of issues, Trump and his America-first administration are sabotaging the search for joint positions among the world’s industrialized and emerging economies. The discrepancies are “obvious,” Merkel said during a speech before German parliament on Tuesday, the discussions “will be difficult.”

If Merkel is right, the U.S. – after withdrawing from the Paris climate deal in early June – is now threatening another global agreement. Almost nine years ago, at the height of the financial crisis, the world’s 20 largest economies agreed to launch economic stimulus programs and to reach consensus on joint regulations to prevent bank collapses and tax evasion. It was a far cry from the new global government that some had been dreaming of, but that summit did bring about some modest improvements.

Now, though, the Trump administration is reneging on numerous G-20 agreements because it doesn’t see the world as a “global community,” …

The U.S. … is demanding that Germany finally take measures to reduce its immense trade surplus. Washington is considering the introduction of a so-called “border adjustment tax,” which would make numerous German products drastically more expensive in the United States. The Americans also want to impose new sanctions against Iran, which Europe opposes, and are demanding that Europe import more natural gas from the U.S. instead of from Russia.

Of particular note, the list makes it clear that Europe and America are already threatening each other with retaliatory measures and reprisals on several issues.

Beef is a primary example. Since 1989, the import of hormone-treated meat has been banned in the EU for health reasons. It is a conflict that has appeared before the World Trade Organization several times and the U.S. has recently ignited it anew. Washington is demanding that Europe open its market to hormone-treated beef and has said that if Brussels doesn’t acquiesce, punitive tariffs could be slapped on over 70 product groups or raise existing tariffs to more than 100 percent. …

Commerce Secretary Ross has been charged with producing a report to clarify whether the cheap imports pose a threat to U.S. national security and was originally supposed to deliver that evaluation in June. Now, however, the German government is concerned that Ross could advise his boss to impose tariffs on the eve of the Hamburg summit or, worse yet, during the meeting.

The problem is that such tariffs wouldn’t just hurt Chinese companies, but primarily countries like Canada, South Korea and Japan in addition to the European Union, above all Germany. Last year, Germany was the eighth largest exporter of steel to the U.S., ahead of even China. If Trump were to impose tariffs, it would have negative consequences both for German exports and for trans-Atlantic relations.

Policymakers in Berlin and Brussels have already begun discussing what countermeasures to take should the Trump administration impose steel tariffs. “The EU will answer appropriately if the U.S. introduces trade restraints against German or European steel companies,” says German Economics Minister Zypries, adding that there are many tools at Europe’s disposal. European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström echoed Zypries, saying: “If it hits us like it could, we will, of course, retaliate.” …

At the same time, the EU is hoping to build new alliances. Negotiations with Japan over a free-trade agreement are making solid progress and Malmström flew to Tokyo on Thursday to clear up some open questions. If her visit is successful, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will stop by Brussels next Thursday on his way to Hamburg to sign a political declaration related to the deal. The intention is clear: “We want to send a signal to Washington: We are in favor of open markets,” says an EU diplomat who is familiar with the plans. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/eu-us-trade-conflict-threatens-to-escalate-ahead-of-g-20-a-1155342.html#ref=nl-international

So, Europe is saying that if the USA takes steps, it will take counter steps. Trade war type steps.

This talk of trade wars is something I have warned about on this page for years. Notice something I posted back in 2008:

Negotiations will continue and some type of loose agreements will happen. In the spirit of accommodation and personal interest, many of the “standards” of the European Union will be adopted by the USA, Canada and Mexico, as well as by nearly all of the countries of the world. The Arab nations will most likely agree with many of the standards as they seem to be destined to form a brief end-time alliance with the Europeans (The Arab World In the Bible, History, and Prophecy).

However, over time, it will become increasingly clear that the British will be in more agreement with the Canadians and Americans and that the European Union in more agreement with the Mexicans than the EU will have with the English-speaking nations.

Trade wars and/or serious trade disputes will most likely arise.

The Brits will ultimately decide that they are more supportive of the Americans and Canadians. They will be so much more supportive that they will end up in a trading agreement with them (with the Australians and New Zealanders probably also becoming part of that agreement).

The EU will decide that Mexico and the rest of Latin America are in more agreement with it and thus make some type of serious trading agreement with most (or all) of Latin America. The Vatican will also have influence here as Latin America is highly Roman Catholic.

The Europeans and Americans, however, will continue to have military agreements, though many will be tense about them. (Thiel B. A Combined EU & North American Trade Block Coming? COGwriter.com, March 3, 2008)

The fact of Brexit and the EU’s response to it have been pushing the Brits to conclude that they need to move closer to the USA on trade. Germany’s Angela Merkel came to South America earlier this month and met with leaders from Mexico and Argentina on trade matters–partially because of concerns related to Donald Trump’s trade statements (see Germany’s Merkel is in Argentina making deals with Mexico and Argentina).

Trade is a concern. So much so, trade wars were listed as part of the Twelve ‘grey swan’ events to watch for in 2017. As the press is reporting, they may happen.

A few months back, we also put together a YouTube video recently titled Trade Wars: Are COG warnings coming to pass?

Trade disputes are likely to be a factor that will lead to World War III.  The Bible tells of a powerful trade empire arising in the last days in Europe, called “Babylon the Great” (Revelation 18). It has long been my view that problems with trade and/or trade agreements will be a factor that will further turn Europe against the USA, and be a factor in the start of WWIII (see also WTO Trade Deal and the Rise of the European Beast Power).

As regular readers of this page are aware, the idea that we could be looking at a coming trade war is not a new one. Part of the reason for World War II was essentially a trade war, that turned into an actual war between the USA and Japan (Hogberg G. Prepare for Trade War! Plain Truth, January 1986).

Consider also that back in 1971, the late WCG Pastor General, Herbert W. Armstrong, wrote:

Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III?

Either we start raising high tariff barriers against other countries, starting a TRADE WAR which in time will trigger the nuclear war that will DESTROY US – or, American workers are going to have to MEET the competition of the workers in other countries , by lowering living standards. Obviously American workers are not going to choose to do the latter. And if they don’t – well, THE HANDWRITING IS ON OUR NATIONAL WALL. (Armstrong HW. Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III? Plain Truth, 1971)

And while his basic impression of timing was off, it is correct that trade issues will be a factor that will trigger WWIII. A war that will be against the USA, Canada, and UK and led by a power that will reorganize (Revelation 17:12-13) and then rise in Europe. A Europe that is angry at the UK for Brexit and one that is mad at the USA for a host of reasons (including decisions of its former President Obama and statements by its current President Donald Trump).

There is a cost to trade wars and tariffs. Those who think otherwise are fooling themselves.

We are seeing more in the world that want to turn further away from the USA.

Massive shifts in trade are beginning to take place.

A real war, and not just a trade war, between Europe and the USA (with the UK basically on the USA’s side) will come as one day Europe will take steps to ‘eliminate the competition’ so to speak (cf. Daniel 8:25; 11:39; USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses). Trade issues appear likely to be a factor that will trigger WWIII.

Tweet

This entry was posted on Friday, June 30th, 2017 at 2:10 pm and is filed under Prophecy, WCG News.

• Donald Trump calls China’s trade actions ‘viscous’ and threatens more tariffs
• ‘US and China exchange new trade war blows as latest round of tariffs takes effect’
• ‘EU trade bodies slam US decision to retain tariffs’
• Trump links tariff relief for Canada, Mexico to NAFTA talks
• ‘Trump: ‘Not Nearly Enough’ Progress in US-Mexico Migrant Talks’
• CNN: New Zealand and the United Kingdom reach free trade deal
• ‘Europe needs to do 2 things to win the trade war,’ Donald Trump’s World Trade Organization views are leading to the rise of the Babylonian Beast
• ‘Trump sees China trade as a war he can win,’ ‘Australia has a lot to lose in the US-China trade war,’ ‘Could Trade War Lead to the Real Thing?,’ and ‘Germany poised to set world’s largest trade surplus’
• Donald Trump says China losing trade war; Peter Thiel suggests Google’s Chinese connection is perhaps treasonous
• ‘China Seen Readying for Trade War During Trump Presidency’