Ron Paul: I believe in that theory of the Black Swan … the Republic is gone.

Black Swan (Calvin Teo)


Tucker Carlson interviewed former Congressman Ron Paul on X (aka Twitter). Here is some of what they discussed:

March 20, 2024

Ron Paul and Tucker Carlson sat down for an in-depth and thought-provoking exchange spanning U.S. foreign policy, the philosophical underpinnings of government intervention, and the overarching consequences of monetary policy.

On Ukraine

Paul, a longtime critic of US foreign policy – particularly interventionism, slammed America’s involvement in the Ukraine war. Carlson played a soundbite of Paul in 2014, when the United States was deep into the reformation of Ukraine.

“We’ve already spent $5 billion over the last ten years trying to pick and choose the leadership of Ukraine … And then we participated in the overthrow of the Yanukovych government,” (for which then-VP Joe Biden was point-man within the Obama administration).”

And I take a noninterventionist foreign policy position. It’s not our business. It doesn’t serve anybody’s interests. It’s part of the same thing that led us into the disaster in the Middle East. So a lot of people die and a lot of money is spent…

-Ron Paul, 2014

Carlson asked Paul just how he knew all that in 2014, to which Paul replied: “Sometimes the people who are running their operation gives you an idea, like like Victoria Nuland,” who he called “the worst kind of warmonger.” …

On Monetary Policy and Economic Principles

According to Paul, America needs to “go through rough tumble times because the price always has to be paid,” adding “How do you liquidate the debt? You know, we can’t walk away from that debt.

When asked by Carlson how to do this, Paul said that the government would essentially inflate their way out of it.

You print money, and every time you print money, the value of the dollar goes down. So the value of the debt goes down … If you double the money supply and prices go up by 50%, it doesn’t work that way. But if you do that, the real debt, it goes down. So it’s a theft, it’s a tax, it’s evil.” -Ron Paul

“So you inflate your way out of it,” Carlson replied.

Yeah. And that’s that’s what will happen,” Paul said. …

Paul says that people are “starved for the truth,” and when they learn it, they learn that “things can get better.”

‘Don’t be a Counterfeiter”

According to Paul, it’s easy for him to discuss monetary policy because the US government is “a counterfeiter.”

“It’s illegal. The Constitution says that only gold. Silver can be legal tender. So. And here. Yeah. Guess what? 1930, 34, when, Roosevelt made gold illegal,” Paul said, adding that “it isn’t hard for people to understand counterfeit. And the other thing is, this is not hard for people to understand taxation. It’s a tax. It’s a vicious tax. It’s a tax on the poor in the middle class. And it enhances war. It enhances all this welfare.” …

How to Prepare

Carlson … asked Paul what the average person should do “if what you have predicted comes true,” which he thinks it “likely will” since “there’s no way to get out of the debt and a way to liquidate it except through inflation. Hyperinflation. How do you protect your family? Like, what practical steps do you take?

To which Paul replied, “I think people should know about how how oh, throughout history, even currently, we’re in the middle of it. You know, the depreciation of the money and what people can do so that they, they that I list is a real eye opener for me.

“But you can’t do that forever. I think we’re reaching this point where, some sudden thing is going to happen. I believe in that theory of the Black Swan.” …

According to Paul (and what every ZH reader should already know), “Gold can protect you from inflation,” something that’s been “known for 6,000 years.”

“You know, just since the Bretton Woods broke down. August 15th, 1971. If you were betting on a gold coin or, you know, your dollar dollar lost 98% of its purchasing power and gold went from $35 up. And that was it. You know, it’s around 2000. Yeah, that’s a ways to go. Yeah. Because the dollar has a ways to go to. Yeah. They can’t they can’t they can restore the dollar. But but there has to be a liquidation of debt…”

“And it’ll come down,” Paul continued.

BUT (and it’s a big but…): “You can have your gold, you can have food, you can have your cabin and and guns and all this. I said it won’t matter if you don’t have your freedom.”

‘There Was A Coup And We Lost’

Paul lamented how big government is “taking stuff from us all the time,” and most of it comes from the middle class, who is “poor,” and “suffer the consequence of inflation.” …

He did explain his take on the deep state… At the end of the day, Paul says “the Republic is gone.

Yes, the Republic is gone.

Now here is the post on X (formerly known as Twitter):

The USA has created money out of thin air (which its debt as well as previous ‘quantitative easing’ programs have done) in order to create jobs, pay back political favors, to push various agendas, and also to deal with government, COVID-caused issues.

As far as the depreciation of money, the Bible warns against doing that:

4 Take away the dross from silver (Proverbs 25:4a).

22 Your silver has become dross, Your wine mixed with water. (Isaiah 1:22)

25 I will turn My hand against you, And thoroughly purge away your dross, And take away all your alloy. (Isaiah 1:25)

18 “Son of man, the house of Israel has become dross to Me; they are all bronze, tin, iron, and lead, in the midst of a furnace; they have become dross from silver. 19 Therefore thus says the Lord God: ‘Because you have all become dross, therefore behold, I will gather you into the midst of Jerusalem. 20 As men gather silver, bronze, iron, lead, and tin into the midst of a furnace, to blow fire on it, to melt it; so I will gather you in My anger and in My fury, and I will leave you there and melt you. 21 Yes, I will gather you and blow on you with the fire of My wrath, and you shall be melted in its midst. 22 As silver is melted in the midst of a furnace, so shall you be melted in its midst; then you shall know that I, the Lord, have poured out My fury on you.’” (Ezekiel 22:18-22)

Although the Bible warns against using dross and diluting the money supply, modern ‘experts’ have a different view. The wrong views on economics will lead to economic problems and ultimately the total crash of the dollar of the USA.

Yes, the USA will have more inflation. Here is a video we made related to that:


Inflation: When Money Fails

Inflation has been higher in 2022 than it has been for decades in the USA, Europe, and many other lands. What are some of the disruptions that inflation can cause? What about hyperinflation affecting places like Venezuela? Did the Book of Haggai predict inflation? Is food price inflation associated with the ride of the third horseman of the Apocalypse? Does sin and government mismanagement cause inflation? Are there physical things one can do about inflation? What about storing food or buying gold? Will gold outlast the USA dollar? Why might some throw their gold in the street as Ezekiel prophesied? What should God’s people do about inflation? What did Jesus teach about food worries? What about seeking the Kingdom of God? Steve Dupuie and Dr. Thiel cover these matters.

Here is a link to our video: Inflation: When Money Fails.

Yes, the USA will have more debt. And while various leaders in the USA believe that inflation will be how the USA will deal with its debt, the Bible shows in Habakkuk 2:6-8 that debt will be a factor in the coming destruction of the USA. Here is a video we made related to debt and what God had Habakkuk prophesy:


And the Debt Goes On …

On June 3, 2023, US President Joe Biden signed a bill to increase the official debt-ceiling of the United States. According to the US Treasury the “ceiling” has been changed, increased, or delayed 78 other times. The official debt has nearly tripled since the Obama-Biden Administration. The official debt increased about $2 trillion per year under Donald Trump’s Administration and has done close to that in the Joe Biden Administration. While the USA has been able to increase debt with limited consequences (like inflation) so far, does the Bible show this can end in destruction? What did God warn about debt through the prophet Habakkuk? Is getting into high amounts of debt a blessing or curse according to the Bible? Do Democrats or Republicans currently have a plan that will now be implemented to pay off the debt? Has the USA been functioning as an international “leech” consistent with statements in the Book of Proverbs? Does the Bible say it is wicked to borrow money you do really intend to repay? Steve Dupuie and Dr. Thiel cover these matters.

Here is a link to our video: And the Debt Goes On …

As far as gold goes, while it will have value after the USA dollar is no longer a currency, it will not provide all the security many hope that it will (see also The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What About Silver?).

During his interview, Ron Paul mentioned his belief in the theory of ‘Black Swans.’ What do they have to do with anything? Notice also the following:

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events . . . was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
  3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs (Wikipedia, viewed 12/12/13)

Some events that people feel are not predictable, of course, are predictable.

What I think Ron Paul meant was that people will try to prepare in various ways, but that there will be things that arise that they did not expect.

And he is right about that.

For example, people who believe that they will be able to ride out rough times with a bunker, gold, food, and guns in the mountains will find that they will be pursued.

The Bible shows that some few will escape captivity will go to the mountains:

16 ‘Those who survive will escape and be on the mountains
Like doves of the valleys,
All of them mourning,
Each for his iniquity.
17 Every hand will be feeble,
And every knee will be as weak as water. (Ezekiel 7:16-17)

Yet, notice also something from the prophets Amos and Jeremiah:

9 ‘Assemble on the mountains of Samaria; See great tumults in her midst, And the oppressed within her. 10 For they do not know to do right, ‘Says the Lord, ‘Who store up violence and robbery in their palaces.’” 11 Therefore thus says the Lord God: “An adversary shall be all around the land; He shall sap your strength from you, And your palaces shall be plundered.” 12 Thus says the Lord: “As a shepherd takes from the mouth of a lion Two legs or a piece of an ear, So shall the children of Israel be taken out Who dwell in Samaria — In the corner of a bed and on the edge of a couch! 13 Hear and testify against the house of Jacob,”Says the Lord God, the God of hosts, 14 ‘That in the day I punish Israel for their transgressions, I will also visit destruction on the altars of Bethel; And the horns of the altar shall be cut off And fall to the ground. (Amos 3:9-14)

19 They pursued us on the mountains And lay in wait for us in the wilderness (Lamentations 4:19).

The above indicates that some will be hiding in the mountains and other places in the USA while others are will be taken out of the USA (which is the prophetic Samaria–see Spiritual Samaritans: Old and New). Most of the Anglos that are not killed will be made slaves. Hiding in the mountains may protect a few for a time, but it will be relatively few that survive that way for long.

They will be pursued.

But didn’t Jesus teach to flee to the mountains?

Well, yes for the mountains of Judea:

15 “Therefore when you see the ‘abomination of desolation,’ spoken of by Daniel the prophet, standing in the holy place” (whoever reads, let him understand), 16 “then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. (Matthew 24:15-16)

But He also did not say one should plan to stay in them. Consider that Jesus then added:

17 Let him who is on the housetop not go down to take anything out of his house. 18 And let him who is in the field not go back to get his clothes. 19 But woe to those who are pregnant and to those who are nursing babies in those days! (Matthew 24:17-19)

Now this does not mean that Jesus expected one to go to a stocked bunker. Only that those in Judea who have not fled before they see the abomination will not have time to do anything then but flee. In time, any who are Philadelphian Christians will go elsewhere (see also There is a Place of Safety for the Philadelphians. Why it May Be Near Petra).

Mormons tend to believe that they need to have a year’s supply of food on-hand, yet that will not be enough.

While most in the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand believe that they will be protected by the USA, notice the following:

1 Hear this word, you cows of Bashan, who are on the mountain of Samaria, Who oppress the poor, Who crush the needy, Who say to your husbands, “Bring wine, let us drink!” … 11 “I overthrew some of you, As God overthrew Sodom and Gomorrah, And you were like a firebrand plucked from the burning; Yet you have not returned to Me,” Says the Lord. 12 “Therefore thus will I do to you, O Israel; Because I will do this to you, Prepare to meet your God, O Israel!” (Amos 4:1,11-12)

1 Woe to you who are at ease in Zion, And trust in Mount Samaria, Notable persons in the chief nation, To whom the house of Israel comes! 2 Go over to Calneh and see; And from there go to Hamath the great; Then go down to Gath of the Philistines. Are you better than these kingdoms? Or is their territory greater than your territory? 3 Woe to you who put far off the day of doom,Who cause the seat of violence to come near; 4 Who lie on beds of ivory, Stretch out on your couches, Eat lambs from the flock And calves from the midst of the stall; 5 Who sing idly to the sound of stringed instruments, And invent for yourselves musical instruments like David; 6 Who drink wine from bowls,And anoint yourselves with the best ointments, But are not grieved for the affliction of Joseph. 7 Therefore they shall now go captive as the first of the captives, And those who recline at banquets shall be removed. 8 The Lord God has sworn by Himself, The Lord God of hosts says: “I abhor the pride of Jacob, And hate his palaces; Therefore I will deliver up the city And all that is in it.” (Amos 6:1-8)

Those who think that they will be able rely on the USA, possibly referred to as Mt. Samaria above, will be severely disappointed at a time in the future. And this includes those in the USA.

It will be so bad that it will take God’s intervention to keep any humans alive:

20 And pray that your flight may not be in winter or on the Sabbath. 21 For then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be. 22 And unless those days were shortened, no flesh would be saved; but for the elect’s sake those days will be shortened. (Matthew 24:20-22)

The Bible tells of a place of protection for Philadelphian Christians and that is in a wilderness area, apparently in the Middle East.

The mountains of the USA. Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the UK will not really be a place of protection for many–the place of protection for the Philadelphian Christians will be elsewhere (see There is a Place of Safety for the Philadelphians. Why it May Be Near Petra).

Now it has been said that “if” is the biggest two-letter word in the English language.

IF certain step happen by the end of 2024 (like the confirmation of the deal of Daniel 9:27), and:

  1. If as the School of Elijah taught, that God inspired Elijah to state that the world as we have known it would last 6,000 years, to be followed by a thousand year sabbatical time, which Jewish tradition (Talmud, Tractate Sanhedrin [97a]) and early Christian traditions records (e.g. Irenaeus, a hearer of Polycarp. Adversus haereses, Book V, Chapter 30:4), then we are getting close to the end of that time.
  2. And if, consistent with scriptures in both the Old and New Testaments, we can apply the concept that a thousand years is as a day to God (Psalm 90:4; 2 Peter 3:8).
  3. And if, as generally understood in the Church of God that Jesus was killed and resurrected no later than the Spring of 31 A.D. on Passover (though some suspect as late as 35 or 36 A.D. may be possible).
  4. And if we can presume that the “last days” of a 7,000 year prophetic week began AFTER the middle day (day 4), then the last days prior to the “sabbatical” time, which some would refer to as the millennial Kingdom of God would last two thousand years.
  5. And if when Peter referred to being in the last days (Acts 2:17-18) and since Hebrews 1:1-12 teaches that “God … has in these last days spoken to us by His Son.”
  6. Then adding 2,000 years to a period of time leads to the end of the 6,000 years no later than 2031 – 2033.
  7. Since the Great Tribulation is expected to start 3 1/2 years prior to that (cf. Revelation 12:14; 13:5) subtracting 3 1/2 years from the Spring of 2031 would be in 2028.
  8. Understand that the U.S.A. is prophesied to be taken over near the rise of the Beast and start of the Great Tribulation (cf. Daniel 11:39; Jeremiah 30:7; Matthew 24:21-22).
  9. Therefore, since the end of the next full U.S.A. presidential term would end in January of 2029, the prophetic understandings, if 31 A.D. was the year of the resurrection, point to the end of the U.S.A. in or by 2028 (if 33 A.D, then possibly add two years).
  10. This is also consistent with certain Roman Catholic prophetic writings as well.
  11. By virtue of timing, whoever is in office in the 2025-2029 presidential term (and it could be more than one person) will take steps which will result in the end of the USA. The USA is prophesied in the Bible to be conquered and defeated (e.g. Daniel 11:39).

It looks like from certain Jewish, biblical, Christian, and Roman Catholic perspectives (and yes others associated with those faiths have other opinions), that the end of the U.S.A. may happen by 2028.

Repentance could delay the disaster coming to the USA (cf. Daniel 4:27)–but that is not expected.

Though many in the USA pay lip service to the Bible, more and more despise the word of God.

12 Therefore thus says the Holy One of Israel:

“Because you despise this word,
And trust in oppression and perversity,
And rely on them,
13 Therefore this iniquity shall be to you
Like a breach ready to fall,
A bulge in a high wall,
Whose breaking comes suddenly, in an instant.
14 And He shall break it like the breaking of the potter’s vessel,
Which is broken in pieces;
He shall not spare.
So there shall not be found among its fragments
A shard to take fire from the hearth,
Or to take water from the cistern.” (Isaiah 30:12-14)

Destruction is coming to the USA–as well as its British-descended allies (UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand)–and it will be worse than most people will believe. The ‘great tribulation’ will begin with an attack against the USA and/or its British-descended allies (e also When Will the Great Tribulation Begin?)

Jesus said to look for various signs (Matthew 24, Mark 13, Luke 21; see also When Will the Great Tribulation Begin?). Until we see certain of those signs, we will not know when the end of this age will be.

But, if we see certain ones in 2024, that would be consistent with the view the end of the 6,000 years could be no later than the fall of 2031 and that the Great Tribulation would start no later than the fall of 2028.

Perhaps it should be mentioned that since traditionally, the old Worldwide Church of God taught that the great tribulation would probably start in the springtime (similar to the time of the Exodus) a spring of 2028 date could mark the beginning of the end of the U.S.A.

That said, the end of the USA and its British-descended allies is coming.

And the only real protection is in heeding the words of Jesus and striving to live as a Philadelphian Christian.

We in the Continuing Church of God “have also a more sure word of prophecy; whereunto ye do well that ye take heed, as unto a light that shineth in a dark place, until the day dawn, and the day star arise in your hearts” (2 Peter 1:19, KJV).

From a physical perspective, understand that the Great Tribulation is coming, and the only group of Christians promised protection from it in the 3rd chapter of the Book of Revelation was the Philadelphians (cf. Revelation 3:7-13).

Whether you live in the USA or not, do not be a Laodicean Christian (Revelation 3:14-18) and settle for less, as Jesus said He may, “vomit you out of My mouth” (Revelation 3:16).

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

Might the U.S.A. Be Gone in 2028? Could the USA be gone by the end of 2028? There is a tradition attributed to the Hebrew prophet Elijah that humanity had 6,000 years to live before being replaced by God’s Kingdom. There are scriptures, writings in the Talmud, early Christian teachings that support this. Also, even certain Hindu writings support it. Here is a link to a related video: Is the USA prophesied to be destroyed by 2028? In Spanish: Seran los Estados Unidos Destruidos en el 2028?
Should a Christian Vote? This article gives some of the Biblical rationale on this subject. Would Jesus vote for president/prime minister? Is voting in the Bible? This is a subject Christians need to understand. A video of related interest is available titled: Should Christians Vote? Another video is Biden, Trump, and the Bible.
Philadelphian Christian Great Tribulation Protection What will the Great Tribulation be like? Does Jesus promise physical protection to some or all Christians? Where might the place of protection be? What about fleeing to the mountains? What did Ezekiel warn? Here is a link to a related sermon: Great Tribulation Protection.
There is a Place of Safety for the Philadelphians. Why it May Be Near Petra This article discusses a biblical ‘place of safety,’ Zephaniah 2 to ‘gather together,’ and includes quotes from the Bible and Herbert W. Armstrong on fleeing to a place–thus, there is a biblically supported alternative to the rapture theory. Two sermon-length videos of related interest are available Physical Protection During the Great Tribulation and Might Petra be the Place of Safety?  Here are two related items in the Spanish language: Hay un lugar de seguridad para los Filadelfinos. ¿Puede ser Petra? and Existe un Lugar de Seguridad.
Spiritual Samaritans: Old and New Who were the Samaritans? Do the represent true Christianity or something else? Here is a link to a related sermon: USA in Prophecy: Samaria.
Herbert W. Armstrong, the Philadelphia Church, & the Mantle Herbert Armstrong claims God had him raise the Philadelphia up. Are there reasons to believe that the Philadelphia mantle in now within the CCOG? Here is a link to a related sermon: Herbert W. Armstrong and the Philadelphia Mantle.
Physical Preparation Scriptures for Christians. We all know the Bible prophecies famines. Should we do something? Here is a version in the Spanish language Escrituras sobre Preparación física para los Cristianos. Here is a link to a related sermon: Physical preparedness for Christians.
The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What About Silver? What do economists and the Bible teach about gold? Gold and silver may drop in value. Inflation/deflation? What do Christians need to know about gold and silver? Two videos of related interest may be: Germany, Gold, and the US Dollar and Silver, Science, and Scripture.
The Seven Laws of Success by Herbert W. Armstrong and Bob Thiel: What Does the Bible Teach? Herbert W. Armstrong had seven laws that he felt could help people become successful.Do scriptures support them? Here are links to three related sermons: Three Scriptural Laws of Success, Jesus and Guaranteed Success, and Rely on God for Real Success.
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2024, 2025, or 2026? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede la Gran Tribulación comenzar en el 2020 o 2021? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? A related video is: Great Tribulation: 2026 or 2027? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023? Notice also: Can Jesus return in 2023 or 2024? Here is a video in the Spanish language: Es El 2021 el año  de La Gran Tribulación o el Grande Reseteo Financiero.
The Gospel of the Kingdom of God This free online pdf booklet has answers many questions people have about the Gospel of the Kingdom of God and explains why it is the solution to the issues the world is facing. It is available in hundreds of languages at Here are links to four kingdom-related sermons:  The Fantastic Gospel of the Kingdom of God!, The World’s False Gospel, The Gospel of the Kingdom: From the New and Old Testaments, and The Kingdom of God is the Solution.
Preparing for the ‘Short Work’ and The Famine of the Word What is the ‘short work’ of Romans 9:28? Who is preparing for it? Will Philadelphian Christians instruct many in the end times? Here is a link to a related video sermon titled: The Short Work. Here is a link to another: Preparing to Instruct Many.


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