ZH: One-Third Of Ukraine Farmland May Go Unplanted As Russia Begins ‘Second Phase’


The fighting in east Ukraine looks to be intensifying:

April 20, 2022

Russia’s new offensive in the Donbas region could prove to be extremely significant and decisive in the war, analysts warn, and could determine how the country’s territorial boundaries look in weeks and years to come.

“The Russian war machine in the east could prove to be a very painful threat for Ukraine quickly,” Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC Tuesday.

“It’s quite clear that Russia’s war aims remain quite extensive,” Hess added, saying that how the battle for Donbas proceeds “will determine how much of Ukraine east of the Dnipro (a river that bisects Ukraine) that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin carves away.”

“I think it’s pretty clear annexation is Putin’s long term goal, how much annexation is the question,” Hess added.

Russian officials have stated that their main objectives in this new phase of the war is the “complete liberation” of the two breakaway, Russian-backed “People’s Republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk. But most analysts believe that the wider Donbas region, an industrialized area rich in coal reserves, will be annexed by Russia. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/20/what-happens-next-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-in-donbas-east-ukraine-.html

As long-time readers of this COGwriter Church of God News page are aware, based upon my understanding of biblical prophecies, I have warned for years (prior to the annexation of Crimea) that Russia would end up with at least parts of Ukraine. More secular sources are coming to the same conclusion.

That being said, the conflict in Ukraine looks to be a factor in lower expected food production:

One-Third Of Ukraine Farmland May Go Unplanted As Russia Begins ‘Second Phase’ …

April 20, 2022

About one-third of Ukraine’s farmlands may not be harvested or cultivated this year as Russia begins the second phase of the conflict in the war-torn country.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) noted in a report on Tuesday that the “vast destruction of crops and infrastructure due to the war jeopardizes food production.”

FAO estimates approximately 33% of the crops and agricultural land may not be harvested because of the escalating war.

In March, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged farmers to sow as many fields as possible to protect the food supply, but that appears to be a challenging task considering the displacement of people (labor shortage), bombed-out fields, severely damaged infrastructure, and shortage of everything (diesel, seeds, & fertilizer).

Ukraine is considered the world’s second-biggest shipper of grains and the biggest exporter of sunflower oil. The planting season has already begun — its crop production is vital to the global food supply.

Even if farmers were to sow as many fields as possible, their ability to export crops would be severely impacted during the harvest season due to damaged infrastructure, such as bombed-out rail systems, highways, bridges, and ports. Also, buyers of grains can barely get dry bulk carriers insured to transit the Black Sea to a Ukrainian port because of soaring war risk premiums. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/one-third-ukraine-farmland-may-go-unplanted-russia-begins-second-phase-war

April 20, 2022

Weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, food prices soared. The invasion sent ripples beyond the immediate conflict zone, breaking supply chains and creating food shortages as two of the world’s biggest food exporters went to war.

In response, Egypt’s prime minister fixed bread prices, Bangladesh launched a nationwide food subsidy program, and consumers in Indonesia noticed a favorite instant noodle dish went out of stock.

In Lebanon, people turned to desperate measures.

“Some families have resorted to selling their belongings in order to use the money to buy food,” Terro said.

Lebanon is heavily dependent on food imports, so anything that happens elsewhere affects the country’s food security, Terro said. “The repercussions of war between Russia and Ukraine have led to catastrophic surges in food products like cooking oil, wheat and some types of grains.” https://www.npr.org/2022/04/20/1092640126/russia-ukraine-war-food-security-united-nations

Yes, there looks to be less food coming from Ukraine and at a higher price. Yes, the Middle East is being affected and this looks to be a factor to set the stage for the rise of the prophesied King of the South (Daniel 11:40; see also Could the Ukrainian food crisis help lead to the rise of the King of the South?).

Wars often lead to famines, food shortages, and/or food inflation.

But there are also other factors that are looking to increase food inflation even more. Notice the following:

April 20, 2022

Farmers in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries could experience reduced output due to soaring fertilizer prices.

The International Rice Research Institute warns that harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people, according to Bloomberg.

Chemical fertilizers, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, are the most applied nutrients for high-yielding rice cultivation. Farmers have been particularly vulnerable to soaring fertilizer prices as some have reduced the amount of nutrients to save costs. This threatens future harvests as production declines could stoke food inflation for a crop that feeds half of humanity.

Humnath Bhandari, a senior agricultural economist at the institute, said the 10% drop in global rice production is a “very conservative estimate.” He said if the Ukraine conflict continued and fertilizer prices remained high and supply limited, then the decline of rice output could be even more severe. This may trigger a full-blown global food crisis, similar to the one that the UN has been warning about.

Russia and Belarus are big suppliers of every major type of crop nutrient. Western countries have sanctioned both, which have limited fertilizers shipments to the rest of the world, crimping supply and why prices are soaring. On top of this, Moscow has reduced or halted nutrient exports. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-rice-production-may-plunge-threatening-half-humanity

In its booklet about the four horsemen of the Apocalypse, the old Worldwide Church of God had the following:

Famine Stalks The Earth

“… And there shall be FAMINES… ” — Matthew 24:7

“And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. ” — Revelation 6:5-6

AS RAPIDLY as the third horseman appeared on the heels of the second, famine follows rapidly on the heels of war. Starvation and scarcity are the natural and immediate results of crop damage. defoliation, contaminated water supplies, destroyed livestock, and the unusually high food demands of a standing army — all caused by war. …

The well-trod path of … war, leading to … famine is an oft-repeated chapter of man’s sordid past.

This principle of war-caused famine is described in grisly detail in two parallel chapters of the Old Testament, Deuteronomy 28 and Leviticus 26. The nation Israel was here warned that if they did not obey God (that is, if they practiced false religion and neglected God’s Commandments) they would be overtaken by national curses leading to war. Read it in Leviticus 26 of The New English Bible:

“If after all this [internal, domestic curses] you have not learnt discipline but still defy me, I in turn will defy you and scourge you seven times over for your sins. I will bring war in vengeance upon you… you shall be herded into your cities, I will send pestilence among you, and you shall be given over to the enemy. I will cut short your daily bread until ten women can bake your bread in a single oven; they shall dole it out by weight, and though you eat, you shall not be satisfied.

“If in spite of all this you do not listen to me and still defy me, I will defy you in anger, and I myself will punish you seven times over for your sins. Instead of meat you shall eat your sons and daughters” (Lev. 26:23-28, New English Bible).

This prophesied pattern of national decline and despicable deprivation has been followed many times in history, and it will be followed again! Less than 40 years after Christ uttered this prophecy of famines, a Roman war siege on Jerusalem caused such severe famine that even cannibalism reared its ugly head in the so-called “holy city” (read Josephus, Wars of the Jews, for the grisly de tails of this siege).

Throughout the Middle Ages, such war-caused food shortages forced whole cities periodically into starvation, often followed by the Bubonic Plague or other diseases. At the very close of the Middle Ages, the Thirty Years War 1618-1648) was especially ferocious in this regard. Whole cities were sacked and destroyed, starvation was wide spread, and there was even cannibalism in many instances. …

The GREAT Famine

The third horseman of the Apocalypse doesn’t primarily refer to the cyclical famines of the past, or the “structural famines” of the present, but to a specific Great Famine in the future. Following great religious confusion and world war, the current “have” nations of today — the rich few who wallow in the lion’s share of the earth’s wealth — will have their turn to suffer want and deprivation.

After one third of America and the British Commonwealth are liquidated in the initial outbreak of war, Ezekiel 5:12 shows that another one third will die with the combined ravages of the third and fourth horsemen, famine and pestilence. These prophecies are yet ahead of us. The black horseman’s future ride will reduce the proud faces of white America, Europe, and the British Common wealth into the blackened skin of starvation such as now afflicts the vast majority of mankind. The rich few are soon to inherit the lot of the poor majority.

Eventually this Great Famine will spread to all peoples and nations of earth until mankind turns to God in total surrender. These dire plagues are allowed by a loving God to teach man obedience. Peoples and nations will have brought this pain upon themselves, by man-devised religion and man-devised war. God is only allowing man to reap what he sows, so that mankind will learn the bitter lesson that sin brings pain! After man learns this lesson, God will shower down a world of plenty once again, in the wonderful World Tomorrow. (Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Ambassador College Press, 1973)

While we are not to the Great Tribulation yet, the four seals of Revelation 6 are in the process of being opened.

Food inflation is associated with the ride of the third horseman as Revelation 6:5-6 states. Nations around the world are being affected by food inflation–and this started BEFORE Russia moved troops into Ukraine.

Notice again something quoted by the old WCG:

“And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. ” — Revelation 6:5-6

The above prophecy specifically calls out a rise in the price of wheat, while it also warns about the oil. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, rapeseed (canola) oil, and sunflower oil.

Related to food inflation, we put together the following video on our Bible News Prophecy YouTube channel:


Food Inflation & the 3rd Horseman of the Apocalypse

The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, UN’s FAO, and others are reporting food price inflation as well as often selected shortages of some food items. Might it get worse? Did Jesus prophesy famines? One analyst stated, “WE haven’t seen anything yet” in regards to rising food prices. Should Christians prepare? What about helping others? Does the ride of the third horseman of the Apocalypse (Revelation 6:5-6) point to a coming time of severe food inflation. Is more food price inflation coming? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more in this video.

Here is a link to the video: Food Inflation & the 3rd Horseman of the Apocalypse.

We are getting to the end of the 6,000 years that God has allowed humans to rule themselves, which will soon be followed by the 1,000 year reign of Christ. Pray for Jesus to return and God’s Kingdom to come (Matthew 6:10).

But prior to Jesus return,”there will be great tribulation” as Jesus foretold (Matthew 24:21).

Some articles of possibly related interest may include:

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse What do each of the four horseman of the Apocalypse represent? Have they began their ride? Did Jesus discuss the any of this? Might their rides coincide with the “beginning of sorrows? Do they start their ride prior to the Great Tribulation? Did Nostradamus or any other ‘private prophets’ write predictions that may mislead people so that they may not understand the truth of one or more of the four horseman? There is also a related YouTube video titled Sorrows and the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
Russia and Ukraine: Their Origins and Prophesied Future Russia in prophecy. Where do the Russians come from? What about those in the Ukraine? What is prophesied for Russia and its allies? What will they do to the Europeans that supported the Beast in the end? There is also a video sermon available: Russia in the Bible and in Prophecy as are two video sermonettes Russia, Ukraine, Babylonian Europe, and Prophecy and Ukraine in Prophecy?
Is Russia the King of the North? Some claim it is. But what does the Bible teach? Here is a link to a video, also titled Is Russia the King of the North?
Ezekiel 38: For Russia & Iran in Our Day? Is Ezekiel 38 about to be fulfilled? Are we close to the battle with Gog and Magog? Four related videos are available: Ezekiel 38 Gog and Magog War: Is it Soon?, Ezekiel 38: For Russia, Ukraine, & Iran Now?, Russia, Iran, Syria, & the Bible (Code), and Gog, Magog, Vladimir Putin, and Ezekiel 38?
Physical Preparation Scriptures for Christians. We all know the Bible prophecies famines. Should we do something? Here is a version in the Spanish language Escrituras sobre Preparación física para los Cristianos. Here is a link to a related sermon: Physical preparedness for Christians.
Is God Calling You? This booklet discusses topics including calling, election, and selection. If God is calling you, how will you respond? Here is are links to related sermons: Christian Election: Is God Calling YOU? and Predestination and Your Selection. A short animation is also available: Is God Calling You?
Christian Repentance Do you know what repentance is? Is it really necessary for salvation? Two related sermons about this are also available: Real Repentance and Real Christian Repentance.

USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. Two related sermon are available: Identifying the USA and its Destruction in Prophecy and Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no Final End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West? Here is a version in the Spanish language: ¿Quién es el Rey del Occidente? ¿Por qué no hay un Rey del Occidente en la profecía del tiempo del fin? A related sermon is also available: The Bible, the USA, and the King of the West.
Does God Have a 6,000 Year Plan? What Year Does the 6,000 Years End? Was a 6000 year time allowed for humans to rule followed by a literal thousand year reign of Christ on Earth taught by the early Christians? Does God have 7,000 year plan? What year may the six thousand years of human rule end? When will Jesus return? 2029 or or 2031 or 20xx? There is also a video titled 6000 Years: When will God’s Kingdom Come? Here is a link to the article in Spanish: ¿Tiene Dios un plan de 6,000 años?
Might the U.S.A. Be Gone by 2028? Are there prophetic reasons to believe that the USA will not last two complete presidential terms? Yes. There is a tradition attributed to the Hebrew prophet Elijah that humanity had 6,000 years to live before being replaced by God’s Kingdom. There are scriptures, writings in the Talmud, early Christian teachings that support this. Also, even certain Hindu writings support it. Here is a link to a related video: Is the USA prophesied to be destroyed by 2028? In Spanish: Seran los Estados Unidos Destruidos en el 2028?
The Great Tribulation: What Happens First? What events have happened? What are some events that are now happening? And what events need to happen for the Great Tribulation to start? Here is a link to a related sermon video: Counting Down to the Great Tribulation. Here is a video in the Spanish language: Contando los eventos y el inicio de la Gran Tribulación.
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2022, 2023, or 2024? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede la Gran Tribulación comenzar en el 2020 o 2021? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? A related video is: Great Tribulation: 2026 or 2027? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023? Here is a video in the Spanish language: Es El 2021 el año de La Gran Tribulación o el Grande Reseteo Financiero.

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