Might water shortages, instead of oil, about to become more important to Iran and others in the Middle East? What about fertilizer?

COGwriter

While the media’s main economic focus related to the war with Iran has been oil, might water shortages become more important to Iran and others in the Middle East?

Notice the following:

March 15, 2026

Water desalination plants have come under attack in Iran and on the Persian Gulf island of Bahrain during the war in the Middle East. In recent decades, the arid Gulf countries have become increasingly reliant on the plants to supply water to cities and towns. https://nyti.ms/4uvmonq

Oil Could Test $200; Martin Armstrong Warns Attacking Iranian Water Supplies Could Bring Out Nukes

March 14, 2026

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong warned in February, “This is where the volatility starts kicking in.” …water assets like desalination plants in Bahrain and Iran are being blown up.  Add the worst water shortage in decades in Iran as a backdrop to constant bombing, and you have a situation that could turn very ugly, very fast.  The water shortage is so bad that there has been water rationing in Tehran for months.  This water rationing was part of the reason there were huge protests in Iran a few months ago.  Armstrong explains:

“Part of the protests (in Iran) were about water rationing.  The Islamic Republic Guard were called the ‘water mafia.’  They control the water. 

It’s kind of like North Korea.  If you want to be fed, you join the army.  All food goes to the army first, and water will also go to the military first.”

Remember, they are water rationing in Iran now, and they don’t have a lot left.  So, what happens if the US, Israel and other Persian Gulf nations knock out what’s left of Iran’s water?  What happens if Iran is completely out of water?  Armstrong says:

“Personally, I would ask Pakistan for a nuke.  Look, you are talking about the death of a country.  When you get to that point, if you’ve got a nuke, you are going to use it.”

So, what happens if the dams and reservoirs are bombed and Iran is completely cut off from water?  Armstrong says:

“If you do that, is that a war crime because you are wiping out the average population and civilians?  Would you do that?  This is a mess.  It’s a complete mess.”

On the other side, what happens if Iran knocks out all the Persian Gulf oil refineries?  Armstrong says:

“If I were Iran, I would attack all the oil refineries of the neighboring states.  You do that, and you will bring the entire West to its knees.  The US only gets about 3% of our oil from the Middle East.  You would wipe out Europe for sure.”

Armstrong sees gold going as high as “$8,800 an ounce . . . and silver $150 per ounce. . .. Oil could test $200 a barrel. . .. It’s going to get worse this summer, and it’s a 250-year drought cycle in Iran.  I wrote about this on my site.” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-could-test-200-martin-armstrong-warns-attacking-iranian-water-supplies-could-bring

Yes, water could become more critical to Iran and others in the Middle East very soon. And yes, that could affect not only the war, but various commodities.

Already, fertilizer has been affected:

Global chokepoint: How the US-Israeli war on Iran could starve millions

Fertilizer shortages and high prices could collapse the fragile system that feeds the world

15 March 2026

The US-Israeli war on Iran has shut fertilizer plants throughout the Gulf and choked off shipping routes. The longer it drags on, the greater the risk of a global food crisis.

For farmers in the northern hemisphere, the war has come at the worst possible time. The spring planting season has begun, and fertilizer is in high demand. While rising fuel costs are the most obvious consequence of the war to consumers, the price of fertilizer is also increasing, and supply of its ingredients is tightening.

How is the war affecting fertilizer supplies?

The ongoing conflict affects every step of the fertilizer production chain. To understand how, it’s vital to first understand how modern fertilizer is made. In the most common process, natural gas is mixed with nitrogen to produce ammonia, which is then refined into urea, ammonium nitrate, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), all of which are considered nitrogen fertilizers.

While farmers also use phosphorus and potassium-based fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers are the most common, accounting for 59% of global consumption. Without these fertilizers, roughly half of the world’s food supply would be wiped out.

With its abundant supplies of natural gas, the Gulf region is a key location for ammonia production. Global fertilizer production is dominated by China, the US, India, and Russia, but Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are the ninth, tenth, and eleventh-largest producers, and around a third of the world’s nitrogen fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait has been de facto closed since early March, with four ships transiting the waterway on March 7, down from an average of 129 throughout February, according to UN figures. …

It is the world’s poorest countries, however, that stand to suffer most. In a report published on Tuesday, UN Trade and Development warned that Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Somalia, Kenya, and Mozambique are six of the ten nations most dependent on fertilizers from the Persian Gulf region. Gulf states supply 54% of fertilizer used by Sudan and 36% used by Sri Lanka.

Farmers in developing countries are often unable to cope with increased input costs, and food shortages can rapidly become famines. https://www.rt.com/news/634873-iran-war-fertilizer-shortage/

As part of the “beginning of sorrows,” Jesus warned of famines and troubles:

7 But when you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be troubled; for such things must happen, but the end is not yet. 8 For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be earthquakes in various places, and there will be famines and troubles. These are the beginnings of sorrows. (Mark 13:7-8)

Wars, water, energy, and fertilizer issues are troubles that we are seeing now.

But the end is not yet.