The Guardian on possible ‘unintended consequences’ of Donald Trump’s Iranian attack

 

COGwriter

Several years ago, I decided to write a book predicting ‘unintended consequences’ of Donald Trump’s second term in office. After he won the November 2024 election, I began to updated a draft of that book, and finished it prior to him officially starting his second term. A year after that term began, I posted an article here titled Donald Trump’s first year confirmed at least 16 COGwriter predictions in the free eBook ‘ Unintended Consequences and Donald Trump’s Presidency’.

Today, the UK Guardian posted a report about what it sees as possible unintended consequences of Donald Trump’s Iranian attacks:

If oil price shocks weren’t bad enough, Trump’s war could have other unintended consequences

12 March 2026

With the US-Israeli war against Iran in its second week, energy markets are in turmoil. On Thursday, the price of Brent Crude Oil topped $100, only slightly lower than the $119 peak per barrel on Monday.

These swings have focused attention on key energy choke points such as the strait of Hormuz, where about one-fifth of the world’s shipped oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes each day. This shutdown of the strait will be felt in people’s everyday lives for months to come, particularly in the form of spiralling household bills. But oil prices alone do not capture the full economic significance of the conflict. …

An unexpected consequence of this war is that the US’s two biggest enemies, China and Russia, could well be drawn closer together. …

The first of these changes is the dramatic pivot in the world oil trade that has accompanied China’s rapid industrial and manufacturing growth. … For China, in particular, conflict in the Gulf and the vulnerability of transit routes such as the strait of Hormuz pose a major risk to its energy supplies. By contrast, other geopolitical shocks have been easier for Beijing to absorb (Venezuelan oil, for example, accounts for less than 5% of China’s seaborne crude imports, making recent disruptions there relatively manageable). In the short term, Beijing can cushion the impact by drawing on its strategic petroleum reserves, estimated at roughly 1.1bn–1.4bn barrels. If the disruption persists, however, China is likely to deepen its reliance on alternative suppliers, particularly Russia, reinforcing the growing energy partnership between the two countries. …

In recent years, companies such as Aramco have diversified beyond the “upstream” of the industry, extracting and selling crude oil, into “downstream” activities that turn crude oil and gas into refined products such as plastics, petrochemicals and fertilisers. As a result, the Gulf is now a major supplier of industrial commodities embedded in global manufacturing and agriculture.

One consequence of this shift is that the Gulf is increasingly connected to the global food economy. Large volumes of fertiliser inputs move through the strait of Hormuz, including more than a third of internationally traded urea and nearly half of global sulphur exports used in phosphate fertilisers. Urea is the most common nitrogen fertiliser, and is essential to about half of global crop production. As shipments from the region falter, fertiliser prices have already begun to rise sharply. If disruptions persist during the current planting season in the northern hemisphere, farmers will face higher costs for essential inputs, pressures that will eventually filter through to food prices around the world. …

Countries in the global south that depend heavily on imported fuel, fertilisers and food are especially exposed, as higher energy and commodity prices quickly translate into rising food costs and mounting balance-of-payments pressures – and potentially hunger and famine. The result is often to deepen existing inequalities both within countries and across the global economy.

Beyond these uneven effects, the war exposes a crucial fact about the structure of the global energy system. Despite decades of discussion about energy transitions, global production and trade remain heavily dependent on oil and gas. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/12/oil-price-shocks-trump-war-china-iran-russia

Yes, closer Russia-China ties and food price inflation are happening because of the attacks by the USA and Israel against Iran, along with Iran’s reactions.

Let me add that another ‘unintended consequence’ is increased risk of terrorism hitting the USA.

Regarding the situation with Iran, here are some excerpts from my free eBook: Unintended Consequences and Donald Trump’s Presidency:

Iran should not be considered to be a candidate to be the final ‘King of the South’ of biblical prophecy.

Despite its posturing and relative military strength, Iran will be somehow effectively neutralized (cf. Ezekiel 32:24). This could perhaps be from an attack involving Israel and/or internal civil unrest — this could also include electromagnetic (EMP) or similar weapons used against Iran (Jeremiah 49:34-39).

It is of prophetic interest to note that the small nation of Israel is prophesied to one day be attacked by some that seem to have a connection to Iran (Isaiah 22:1-14).

Iran may decide to strike out against Israel, and possibly Jerusalem (cf. Isaiah 22:7-8) if a Trump Administration and/or Israel takes actions it does not like.

Iran has weapons that can cause damage. Furthermore, the USA itself (as well as is the State of Israel) is vulnerable to EMP type attacks and items such as biological weapons, chemical weapons, terrorism, nuclear weapons, dirty bombs, etc. because of a conflict involving Iran, Syria, and/or others.

But should this occur, this would NOT be the final destruction of the USA. Prophetically, Iran would not end up faring well (cf. Ezekiel 32:24-25). …

Donald Trump has been a polarizing figure and has offended many including minorities, migrants, and Muslims. Expect civil unrest and rioting. The Bible prophesies “There shall be terror within” (Deuteronomy 32:25). The Bible also specifically warns of problems from Arabic/Islamic peoples in the end times (Psalm 83:3-8).

There have been and will be many unintended consequences of the Trump-Vance Administration.