Church of God News

COGwriter

China and Europe have concerns about a possible trade war because of US President Donald Trump:

March 15, 2017

BEIJING

China’s premier told the United States on Wednesday: We don’t want a trade war with you, but if one breaks out, your companies would bear the brunt. … Li Keqiang told a news conference in Beijing ahead of the first visit by the new U.S. secretary of state …

The two countries share extensive common interests and should “sit down to talk to each other” to build trust and narrow differences, Li told journalists at the end of China’s annual parliamentary session, adding that diplomats were working toward a face-to-face meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. …

Premier Li said China’s trade and investment ties with the United States created up to one million American jobs last year.

“Recently I came across an article from an authoritative international think tank. It says that should a trade war break out between China and the United States, it would be foreign-invested companies, in particular U.S. firms, that would bear the brunt of it,” he said.

“We don’t want to see any trade war breaking out between the two countries. That wouldn’t make our trade fairer,” he added.

But while it’s true that a trade war would a disproportionate effect on American firms like Apple which outsource manufacturing to China, economist Christopher Balding said it wasn’t really accurate to say that the U.S. economy as a whole is more vulnerable.

“China is much more dependent on trade with the U.S. as a percentage of GDP, and received most of its trade surplus from the U.S.,” said Balding, an associate professor at the HSBC Business School in Shenzhen, adding that it would be easier for U.S. firms to move their supply chain than for China to change its industrial structure.

“It remains advisable for China to match its rhetoric on open markets and free trade with action, by opening up … markets to competition in goods and investment,” he said.

Li’s comments came a day after Trump’s pick for U.S. trade representative said China is one of the top trade problems the United States faces, but that it was not clear if Beijing is still manipulating its currency.

“If you look at our problems, China is right up there,” Robert Lighthizer told lawmakers on the Senate Finance Committee at a confirmation hearing on Tuesday in Washington. http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/article138595108.html#storylink=cpy

European trade ministers met for a working lunch in Brussels and agreed to a joint position. The agreed that the EU should not fuel the conflict, but it should prepare for the possibility of a trade war with the United States.

The goal, in such a case, would be that of isolating the U.S. EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström was asked to begin negotiating further agreements with other countries and regions of the world. She is currently touring the Far East in order to expedite current talks on trade agreements with Japan, India and Australia. At the same the, the EU countries are pushing ahead with their plans for public courts that would arbitrate conflicts relating to controversial investment projects. It’s an initiative that the Trump administration wants to put a stop to at all costs.

Trump’s trade policy adviser Peter Navarro has been the most outspoken about calling Germany the enemy. The Harvard graduate views it as a “serious issue. Germany is one of the most difficult trade deficits that we’re going to have to deal with but we’re thinking long and hard about that.” He has also accused EU politicians of deliberately devaluing the euro to give European exporters a price advantage over their American competitors.

Even before Trump’s election, Navarro had been considered an outsider with his views. Now he’s the president’s chief ideologist on trade. Many of Trump’s allies are pushing for a radical tax policy measure to stop the stream of goods from abroad, a measure referred to in official jargon as a border adjustment tax — a plan whereby exports would be exempt from taxes but companies would not be able to deduct money they spend on imports.. “We are taking this very seriously,” says one high-ranking source in the Chancellery. …

If none of that bears fruit, the Chancellery has begun reviewing ways it could strike back at the U.S. One idea would be to incrementally increase duties on American imports. Agreements reached within the World Trade Organization framework provide enough maneuvering room to allow for that. Another possibility would be to allow German companies to write off the U.S. import tax on their German tax declarations, thus compensating them for their competitive disadvantage.

Ultimately, Germany could also take a bigger step: lowering corporate taxes and the amount of social contributions employers are required to pay here. Both would make Germany more attractive to international corporations, but they would also cost tax payers billions of euros — initially at least.

As the defenses are mounted against Trump, Merkel is counting on the European Commission, which recently said it wants to significantly bolster its arsenal for potential trade wars. Last November, the EU executive paved the way for improving its defense instruments, which it had originally planned to deploy against China. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/merkel-prepares-for-difficult-visit-with-donald-trump-a-1138244.html#ref=nl-international

China and Europe are concerned about the USA, which will likely drive them closer together. Donald Trump’s executive order against the TPP agreement has already seemed to have helped both China and Europe in Asia and elsewhere.

This talk of trade wars is something I have warned about on this page for years. Notice something I posted back in 2008:

Negotiations will continue and some type of loose agreements will happen. In the spirit of accommodation and personal interest, many of the “standards” of the European Union will be adopted by the USA, Canada and Mexico, as well as by nearly all of the countries of the world. The Arab nations will most likely agree with many of the standards as they seem to be destined to form a brief end-time alliance with the Europeans (The Arab World In the Bible, History, and Prophecy).

However, over time, it will become increasingly clear that the British will be in more agreement with the Canadians and Americans and that the European Union in more agreement with the Mexicans than the EU will have with the English-speaking nations.

Trade wars and/or serious trade disputes will most likely arise.

The Brits will ultimately decide that they are more supportive of the Americans and Canadians. They will be so much more supportive that they will end up in a trading agreement with them (with the Australians and New Zealanders probably also becoming part of that agreement).

The EU will decide that Mexico and the rest of Latin America are in more agreement with it and thus make some type of serious trading agreement with most (or all) of Latin America. The Vatican will also have influence here as Latin America is highly Roman Catholic.

The Europeans and Americans, however, will continue to have military agreements, though many will be tense about them. (Thiel B. A Combined EU & North American Trade Block Coming? COGwriter.com, March 3, 2008)

Trade wars increase costs and international tensions.

Trade wars have been listed as part of the Twelve ‘grey swan’ events to watch for in 2017?

Trade disputes are likely to be a factor that will lead to World War III.

The idea that we could be looking at a coming trade war is not a new one. Part of the reason for World War II was essentially a trade war, that turned into an actual war between the USA and Japan.

Over thirty years ago, Gene Hogberg of the old Worldwide Church of God wrote the following:

Prepare for Trade War

THE Free World’s 40-year period of unprecedented prosperity may soon come to a crashing halt. Support in the United States — the West’s leading trading nation — for maintaining free trade is crumbling fast.

Instead, there reverberate in the halls of Congress warnings to trade partners to open markets or face the retaliation of heightened tariffs and quotas. …

Mr. Reagan is painfully aware of where unbridled protectionism could lead. In recently rejecting a protectionist plea from one industry, the President evoked memories of the Depression — era Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. “Some of us remember the 1930s, when the most destructive trade bill in history, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, helped plunge this nation and the world into a decade of depression and despair,” he told a radio audience. “From now on, if the ghost of Smoot-Hawley rears its ugly head in Congress, if Congress creates a depression — making bill, I’ll fight it.”

But the ghost is rising, and support for the President’s trade policy is waning, even from those within his own party.

What Smoot-Hawley Did

Just how disastrous was the Smoot-Hawley bill? The devastating role it played in the Great Depression was explained in the September 5 issue of The Wall Street Journal, in an article written by its editor, Robert L. Bartley. “The stock-market crash of 1929 came in the midst of debate in Congress over the tariff,” wrote Mr. Bartley. “It had spent the year adding item after item to the protection list. In mid — 1930 the Smoot-Hawley Bill became law, with the highest tariffs in the nation’s history.” What might have been an ordinary correction, continued Mr. Bartley, “turned into the Great Depression…. As the international accounts closed down, the world economy choked.” …

Dangerous Security Changes

Other experts warn that American political leaders — responding to calls for immediate competitive relief from their constituents — may be ignoring another lesson of the Great Depression: that the severe contraction of world trade gave added impetus to imperialist surges in Asia and Europe, specifically Japan and Germany.

Since 1945 Japan has chosen the mercantile road as its path to power, prestige and national restoration. Germany, specifically the Federal Republic of Germany, is heavily dependent upon world trade, exporting a full third of its manufactured goods.

Access to the U.S. market is central to the economies of Japan and the other nations of the Pacific Basin, writes National Review executive editor John McLaughlin, “and hence perhaps to their stability.” If protectionism takes hold, what would happen to Japan and to Western Europe, whose economic heart is in Germany? Protectionism, leading to a full-blown trade war, would likely break the extensive joint defense relationships between the U.S. and its primary World War II foes, now allies for the past 40 years.

Americans should then prepare to witness the emergence of a nuclear — armed Japan as well as a nuclear — armed united Europe with Germany at its core. It’s doubtful whether the American public and its elected representatives have thought out the likely end results of actions now under way.

Former Senate majority leader Howard H. Baker Jr. sounded this warning: “The disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was rushed through Congress… and it took 14 years and a world war to straighten out the mess.” (Hogberg G. Prepare for Trade War! Plain Truth, January 1986)

Back in 1971, the late Herbert W. Armstrong wrote the following:

Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III?

Either we start raising high tariff barriers against other countries, starting a TRADE WAR which in time will trigger the nuclear war that will DESTROY US – or, American workers are going to have to MEET the competition of the workers in other countries , by lowering living standards. Obviously American workers are not going to choose to do the latter. And if they don’t – well, THE HANDWRITING IS ON OUR NATIONAL WALL. (Armstrong HW. Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III? Plain Truth, 1971)

And while his basic impression of timing was off as was Gene Hogberg’s, it is correct that trade issues will  be a factor that will trigger WWIII. A war that will be against the USA, Canada, and UK by a power that will reorganize (Revelation 17:12-13) and then rise in Europe. A Europe that is angry at the UK for Brexit and one that is mad at the USA for a host of reasons (including decisions of its former President Obama and statements by its current President Donald Trump) will one day take steps.

There is a cost to trade wars and tariffs. Those who think otherwise are fooling themselves.

We are seeing more in Europe turn further away from the USA.

Massive shifts in trade are beginning to take place.

We put together a BibleNewsProphecy video about trade: Trade Wars: Are COG warnings coming to pass?

A real war between Europe and the USA (with the UK basically on the USA’s side) will come as one day Europe will take steps to ‘eliminate the competition’ so to speak (cf. Daniel 8:25; 11:39; USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses).

We in the Continuing Church of God “have also a more sure word of prophecy; whereunto ye do well that ye take heed, as unto a light that shineth in a dark place, until the day dawn, and the day star arise in your hearts” (2 Peter 1:19, KJV).”

Tweet

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 15th, 2017 at 3:00 pm and is filed under Prophecy.

• Free Book: Donald Trump and America’s Apocalypse
• ‘Trump sees China trade as a war he can win,’ ‘Australia has a lot to lose in the US-China trade war,’ ‘Could Trade War Lead to the Real Thing?,’ and ‘Germany poised to set world’s largest trade surplus’
• Donald Trump calls China’s trade actions ‘viscous’ and threatens more tariffs
• ‘China Seen Readying for Trade War During Trump Presidency’
• ‘Europe needs to do 2 things to win the trade war,’ Donald Trump’s World Trade Organization views are leading to the rise of the Babylonian Beast
• BibleNewsProphecy: January-March 2018: Trade Wars!
• Donald Trump says China losing trade war; Peter Thiel suggests Google’s Chinese connection is perhaps treasonous
• Donald Trump declares China in violation: Trade war begins?
• ‘US and China exchange new trade war blows as latest round of tariffs takes effect’
• EU’s Tusk considers Trump a major threat. Trade war?