Nomura’s 8 ‘grey swans’ for 2019

Black Swan (Calvin Teo)


Are you familiar with ‘black swan’ and ‘grey swan’ events. Here is some information:

Many investors will be familiar with the term “Black Swans” — the term coined by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe unexpected or unlikely market events that can cause huge disruption.

Nicholas Taleb argued that, while unlikely, the outsized impact of black swan events means investors and companies should have contingency plans in place to protect themselves just in case.

But what are grey swans? Nomura’s global FX strategist Bilal Hafeez and his team describe them as “risks that many had highlighted, but turned out to materialise in a much more extreme fashion than expected.” 12/14/18

As it has been doing in the recent past, Nomura again came up with a list of ‘grey swan’ events. This time for 2019:

Here are Nomura’s grey swans:

The end of populsim {sic}

Trump’s election in the US, the Brexit vote in Britain, the rise of the Five Star Movement in Italy, the election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, the yellow vest protest in France — the rise of populist politics has been a defining story of global politics for the last few years.

Hafeez and his team lay the blame at the feet of China, arguing that: “Globalisation, rather than just producing cheap goods for rich countries, has now allowed countries such as China to take middle-class jobs from developed countries.” This has fuelled resentment, Nomura argued.

“From this it follows that if China’s model falters, then it could provide a leading indicator
of populism declining elsewhere,” Hafeez and his team wrote. “And it is certainly the case that China’s model is under pressure.”

If populism fails to deliver on its promise of re-balancing economies to favour the downtrodden, then its popularity could begin to wane. Nomura cites the splintering factions on Brexit and the US Republicans’ loss of the House in November as signs this could be beginning.

Oil goes to $20

“Oil prices have a recent history of moving from boom to bust and in ways that oil analysts have not expected,” Hafeez and his team wrote, suggesting that such an unexpected crash could happen next year.

While unlikely, the Nomura team said that any slowdown in Chinese economic growth could seriously dent demand and push down the price of oil …

The ‘big market quake’

“It’s easy to paint a picture of a market crisis in 2019,” Hafeez wrote.

The Fed is hiking interest rates and reducing its balance sheet, the Bank of Japan and the ECB are both curtailing massive bond purchases to support markets, and both the Chinese and US economies are set to slow. …

Italian debt recovers …

Italy runs a budget surplus when debt repayments are stripped out and has a current account surplus. Italy’s budget plans, if successful, could provide the same kind of economic growth that Trump’s tax cuts provoked in the US. …

Emerging market deflation

Inflation is at a historic low in India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa, leading Hafeez to write: “It’s unusual for so many large EMs [emerging markets] to have a lengthy period of low inflation… and it suggests something structural could be going on.”

Currency pressure from the US could prove a deflationary force, as many emerging economies have weak growth. …

The Chinese renminbi recovers

The market currently expects the Chinese renminbi to depreciate against the dollar next year but Nomura said clients may want to consider the possibility of the reverse happening. …

Global growth accelerates, not slows

Almost all analysts expect 2019 to be a tough year for economic growth as the twin engines of the global economy — the US and China — both slow.

But consensus can sometimes be wrong and Nomura said there are some signs that the global economy could actually do well next year. …

Euro area deflation

Inflation in the eurozone is tracking at around 1%, which is much lower than it usually would be at this stage in the economic cycle. That means that “when growth does roll over, deflation risks increase far quicker than they would normally,” Hafeez and his team wrote. …

An inflation ‘sonic boom’

Nomura wrote: “Although inflation has been fleeting and sporadic, what if it has just been pent up and is waiting to be unleashed? The US economy could be one of the first to confront higher inflation at full employment.”

US growth is expected to slow in 2019 but if for some reason it keeps up a solid pace then market forces may create a “sonic boom” in inflation late in the year, Nomura warned, as full employment leads to higher wages and rising prices. 12/14/18

Related to the first item, whether or not you call it the ‘end of populism,’ we will one day see a reorganization in Europe where a powerful dictator, called the beast, will rise up (Revelation 17:12-13).

As far as inflation goes, the USA has set itself up for massive inflation, though 2019 will not be the year where inflation will get so bad that the USA dollar will be worth no more than the cotton paper it is printed on.

Grey swan events essentially mean that they are possibly predictable.

‘Grey swans’ are a takeoff of ‘black swans.’

Notice also the following:

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events . . . was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
  3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs (Wikipedia, viewed 12/12/13)

Some events that people feel are not predictable, of course, are predictable.

Notice what God had recorded in His word:

9 Remember the former things of old,
For I am God, and there is no other;
I am God, and there is none like Me,
10 Declaring the end from the beginning,
And from ancient times things that are not yet done,
Saying, ‘My counsel shall stand,
And I will do all My pleasure,’
11 Calling a bird of prey from the east,
The man who executes My counsel, from a far country.
Indeed I have spoken it;
I will also bring it to pass.
I have purposed it;
I will also do it. (Isaiah 46:9-11)

God’s counsel will stand. That includes prophecies from the Bible.

As far as Nomura goes, its success in predicting grey swan events has not been that good. Partially this is because it did not look at scripture–though some events it discussed before (and now) could happen later than the year(s) they were predicted for.

We in the Continuing Church of God “have also a more sure word of prophecy; whereunto ye do well that ye take heed, as unto a light that shineth in a dark place, until the day dawn, and the day star arise in your hearts” (2 Peter 1:19, KJV).

To look at a 2017 list of what to watch in 2018, as well as to see what to watch in 2019, check out the following article: 19 items to prophetically watch in 2019.

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

19 items to prophetically watch in 2019 Much is happening. Dr. Thiel points to 19 items to watch (cf. Mark 13:37), plus another, in this article. Here is a link to a related sermon: 19 items to watch in 2019.
The End of US Dollar Dominance Is the USA losing its economic status? What about the petro-gold-yuan? A related video is also available: US Dollar being challenged by Gold-Petro-Yuan.
Collapse of the Euro and Dollar? War in 2020? Larry Edelson of Money and Markets described aspects of current economic difficulties and explained why he felt matters would get a lot worse. He said war, like World War III, could break out as early as 2020. What did he call the ‘granddaddy of all cycles”? Will matters go as he said? What does the Bible teach? Dr. Thiel provides biblical insights that secular sources often miss. This is a video.
End of the Anglo-American Order In mid-2017, BBC ran an article under the headline of “End of the Anglo-American order?” Is that really a question or the biblical reality? After the Brexit vote, the election of US President Donald Trump, and US rejection of the Paris accords on climate change, is the world really going to put in a different order? Some are claiming that Europe or Germany will head up this new world order–an order that sounds eerily similar to one essentially proposed and approved by the United Nation in 2015. Is the UN’s “Agenda 2030” a false gospel? How will this end for the USA, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand? Will there later be something better to replace it? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more. This is a video.
Is God Calling You? This is a draft booklet discussing calling, election, and selection. If God is calling you, how will you respond?
Christians: Ambassadors for the Kingdom of God, Biblical instructions on living as a Christian This is a scripture-filled booklet for those wishing to live as a real Christian.
Christian Repentance Do you know what repentance is? Is it really necessary for salvation? A related sermon is also available titled: Real Christian Repentance.
When You Sin: Do You Really Repent? This is an article by Charles F. Hunting. A related sermon is Confess to God and truly repent.

Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be: Are Chinese threats against Australia for real?
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
British are the Covenant People What do ‘British’ and ‘Britain’ mean in Hebrew? Are the descendants of the Anglo-Saxons people of the covenant? Does the British royal family connect to the throne of David? What does the Bible teach? What does history show us? Is there any DNA evidence related to British-Israelism? When did Christianity make it to the British Isles? Could Jeremiah have made it to the British Isles? What type of Christians made it to the British Isles? Did the last King of England believe in British Israelism?
Canada in Prophecy: What Does Bible Prophecy, Catholic Prophecy, and other Predictions Suggest About the Future of Canada? There are prophecies that suggest involvement with Canada. And many are not positive about its future.
USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. A related sermon is titled: Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2018, 2019, or 2020? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede comenzar la Gran Tribulación en 2018 o 2019? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? You can also see the English language sermon videos: The Great Tribulation from the Mount of Olives and Can the Great Tribulation begin before 2020? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation begin in 2018?
The Times of the Gentiles Has there been more than one time of the Gentiles? Are we in it now or in the time of Anglo-America? What will the final time of the Gentiles be like? A related sermon is available and is titled: The Times of the Gentiles.
Protestant and Church of God views of the United States in Bible Prophecy Is the USA mentioned in Bible prophecy? Some Protestants say yes, while others say no. What does the Bible really teach? Learn the truth about this. There is also a video available: Is The United States Mentioned In Bible Prophecy?
Physical Preparation Scriptures for Christians. We all know the Bible prophecies famines. Should we do something? Here is a version in the Spanish language Escrituras sobre Preparación física para los Cristianos. Here is a link to a related sermon: Physical preparedness for Christians.
The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What do economists and the Bible teach about gold? Gold and silver may drop in value. Inflation/deflation? What do Christians need to know about gold?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? Here is a link to a video titled: The Future King of the North.
The Gospel of the Kingdom of God This free online pdf booklet has answers many questions people have about the Gospel of the Kingdom of God and explains why it is the solution to the issues the world is facing. Here are links to three related sermons: The World’s False Gospel, The Gospel of the Kingdom: From the New and Old Testaments, and The Kingdom of God is the Solution.
Donald Trump in Prophecy Prophecy, Donald Trump? Are there prophecies that Donald Trump may fulfill? Are there any prophecies that he has already helped fulfill? Is a Donald Trump presidency proving to be apocalyptic? Two related videos are available: Donald: ‘Trump of God’ or Apocalyptic? and Donald Trump’s Prophetic Presidency.
Trump Presidency Magic 8 Ball or Bible Prophecy? BBC reported that one might as well use a ‘Magic Eight-Ball’ to try to predict what will happen in the remaining time of Donald Trump’s presidency. What is a ‘Magic Eight-Ball’? Dr. Thiel not only explains that, but also briefly goes over 10 biblically-based warnings he wrote would happen if Donald Trump were elected that have already began to come to pass. He also goes over something he wrote back in 2008 that the Trump presidency is also helping lead to fulfillment. Should you trust Bible prophecy or not? Dr. Thiel says that Bible prophecy can be trusted, despite the view of skeptics and others that either overlook or despise the Bible. This is a video.
Donald Trump and America’s Apocalypse This 188 page book is for people truly interested in prophecies related to Donald Trump and the United States, including learning about several that have already been fulfilled and those that will be fulfilled in the future. The physical book can be purchased at Amazon for $12.99 from the following link: Donald Trump and America’s Apocalypse.
Donald Trump and America’s Apocalypse-Kindle Edition This electronic version of the 188 page print edition is available for only US$3.99. And you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to for your free Kindle reader and then go to Donald Trump and America’s Apocalypse-Kindle Edition.
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West?

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