America to be Replaced By China or Europe?
As the following article from Canada shows, many are concluding correctly that the USA is in decline. Many believe that China is the likely replacement, but some suspect Europe:
The decline of AmericaThe comfortable U.S. hegemony of the late 1990s has been upset by economic crises and military misadventure — the future may belong to someone elseOttawa Citizen, Canada – Dec 24, 2009 by Karl Moore and David Lewis, Citizen SpecialGlobalization has a habit of mutating in unexpected directions. When the Berlin Wall went down in 1989 and Deng Xiaoping embraced “socialism with markets,” the “end of history” seemed upon us…
The accepted wisdom of the 1990s held that globalization meant Americanization…
What a difference 10 years makes. In 2000 Russia under Vladimir Putin turned its back on the West and much of democracy. America elected George W. Bush. Europe coined its own currency. The dot.com boom ended in a crash. The jihad and “clash of civilizations” Barber and Huntington warned about exploded on Sept. 11, 2001. Terror and anti-Americanism themselves became globalized. Bush’s invasion of Iraq poisoned America’s relations with much of the world.
By the mid-2000s Niall Ferguson was writing about “sinking globalization.” Fareed Zakaria and others spoke openly of a “post-American world” and the “rise of the rest.” America’s relative economic power was fading, and no one talks of a geoeconomic Pax Americana any more. The triumphalism of the 1990s buried the words of Yale’s Paul Kennedy, who warned that geoeconomics ultimately dictates geopolitics. Kennedy’s warning that the United States was overextending itself militarily just as Spain, France and Britain had done, was ignored in the 1990s.
Globalization in the 2000s is backfiring on the United States … American manufacturing went to China and services went to India. The former “arsenal of democracy” now entertained, speculated and consumed, going the way of Holland and Britain. America’s financial sector grew from four to eight per cent of GDP. A new generation of untrained real estate entrepreneurs forgot, and then repeated, the horrendous mistakes of the 1920s.
In the 2000s Global America no longer provided enough goods or services to pay its bills. The Pax Americana may be over a lot sooner than many think. Who will fill the vacuum?
…Serwer blamed many of the disasters of the 2000s on an “economic narcissism” and an irresponsible spirit of deregulation and mismanagement not unlike that of the 1920s. In the 1920s a real estate bubble gave way to a stock market bubble, ending in a horrendous crash and a Great Depression.
The reverse happened in the 2000s. After the dot.com bubble collapsed America and Canada entered a recession. Sept. 11 might have caused a meltdown had not Alan Greenspan cut interest rates to the bone and flooded the markets with cheaper credit. The unintended effect was to jumpstart the market in subprime mortgages. Weakened by financial scandals, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at first withdrew from the real estate market. Wall Street then led a global stampede into mortgages that made the Florida/California land booms of the 1920s look like small change. The outcome was the same: a crash and the onset of a Great Recession.
Where is globalization going? The idea of a one-world global economy has always been exaggerated. Canadian Alan Rugman argues that what really exists is three regional economies: East and South Asia, North America and the European Union. The evidence suggests that North America is falling behind, and China/India are assuming the places they once held before 1800. If one looked at the First Global Economy of 1500-1800 one would see most of the manufacturing concentrated in China and India. Ottoman Turkey dominated the Middle East.
A new book by Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, argues provocatively that China from now on is destined to call the tune in world affairs. In 2030 China’s GDP will be $70 trillion and America’s $40 trillion. Are we witnessing the return of the Ming hegemony, when Zheng He projected Chinese power into India and even Africa?
One final element in the equation must also be noted before one writes off the West. Twenty years ago the European model was being dismissed as inefficient and unwieldy, no match for the “lean and mean” shareholder capitalism of the “Anglosphere.” Now the world is not so sure. Even the free-market Economist recently reluctantly admitted that the highly statist French and the corporatist German models were weathering the Great Recession better than Britain. In spite of all the arguments of the Euroskeptics, the European Union has transformed itself into a unique global superstate. Europe now has a president, a foreign minister, a common currency, a passport, a defence industry, a supersonic fighter, and an international role in peacekeeping.
If and when the United States begins to retrench, no certain thing but a real possibility, the European Union may well begin to fill the vacuum in the Western world. Europe’s soft power is already formidable. In 2005 Mark Leonard wrote a book titled Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. Leonard argued that where America sent troops, the EU sent inspectors. Through its trading bloc and association agreements, Europe is extending its soft power into the former Soviet sphere, the Middle East, Africa and even Latin America.
Nations seeking the benefits of EU membership or association are given a massive book of regulations and told to put their house in order. It is far more effective than American Jarheads. For the first time Europe speaks with one voice, the low-key Flemish of President Herman Van Rompuy. A recent issue of the Economist insisted “We are all Belgians now.”
The rise of China may in the future demand more forceful leadership in the West. Given the realities of geoeconomics it is not inconceivable that a far more dynamic leader such as German Economics Minister Karl Theodor von und zu Guttenberg might one day be in charge.
Is the past key to the future? If one goes back five centuries China and India ruled the global economy. Turkey dominated the world of Islam. Europe suddenly came together under the leadership of the young dynamic Habsburg Charles V, who ruled from Belgium. Charles sought to halt the expansion of Islam, defend European civilization, unite the continent and forge a Latin American empire. Europe enjoyed a global reach under his reign, not only by military might but by “soft power” and diplomacy.
If America declines, will Europe fill the vacuum, partly in response to the Chinese challenge? To some this seems unlikely but think back to the world of only a scant 10 years ago when the Anglo-American model of stakeholder capitalism stood triumphantly (and perhaps a tad arrogantly) and practically alone on the top of the heap, and how much has changed since then.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/decline+America/2377175/story.html
RC Meredith of the Living Church of God wrote:
Many publications have suggested that the 21st century will be “China’s century.” Even though the Chinese are fiercely moving forward, and their progress in developing their industries is obvious, these publications are dead wrong for two reasons. First, the inspired word of God describes specifically how a coming European Union will be the dominant force in this world—obviously within the next several years. Therefore, brethren, I would like to focus your mind on this matter so you can more intelligently “watch” world events along this line as they unfold before your very eyes. In the coming years, you will perhaps even see a revolt of the peasants in the outlying Chinese cities, who have lagged far behind the standard of living afforded those who have moved to Beijing and Shanghai. Plus, the tremendous pollution of the water, air and foodstuffs may bring about massive disease epidemics and other problems for the Chinese.
In addition, distracting wars and other events may— as God chooses to guide it—greatly undermine the material progress now being made by the Chinese. Meanwhile, you will soon see the European Union evolve into an absolutely powerful and dynamic force in the world— ultimately to become the “Beast” as revealed in Revelation 17 in your own Bible!
So the 21st century will not be the “Chinese century!” Rather it will appear to become the European century for a few years, until the magnificent return of Jesus Christ as King of kings and Lord of lords. From then on, the 21st century will be, indeed, “Christ’s century!” And all of us who are able to understand the “Big Picture” of world events from God’s point of view should be preparing to help straighten out the appalling degree of suffering, starvation and misconduct we find on this earth today in virtually every nation (Meredith R.C. An Inspiring and Successful Trip. Living Church News. May-June 2007, p. 21).
The Bible tells of the rise of the “daughter of Babylon”. Babylon is place that the Europeans tend to consider is appropriate as a reference to their union. And according to biblical prophecy, the description of the future “Babylon” fits Europe much better than China (though it will apparently trade with it).
Some articles of possibly related interest may include:
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe?
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, British, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States?
Asia in Prophecy What is Ahead for Asia? Who are the “Kings of the East”? What will happen to nearly all the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and others of Asia? China in prophecy, where? Who has the 200,000,000 man army related to Armageddon?
