‘China’s Trade with US Tumbles as Tariff War Shows Its Teeth’ ‘so Beijing is building bridges to the EU through the belt and road’
US-China business has been affected by the tariff trade war:
China’s Trade with US Tumbles as Tariff War Shows Its Teeth
September 9, 2019
China’s trade with the United States is falling as the two sides prepare for negotiations with no signs of progress toward ending a tariff war that threatens global economic growth.
Imports of American goods tumbled 22% in August from a year earlier to $10.3 billion, customs data showed Sunday. Exports to the United States, China’s biggest market, sank 16% to $44.4 billion.
Both sides have raised tariffs on billions of dollars of each other’s imports in the fight over complaints about Beijing’s trade surplus and technology development plans.
China’s … Exports to the European Union rose 3% from a year earlier to $38.3 billion. https://moneyandmarkets.com/chinas-trade-us-tumbles-tariff-war/
Some in Europe are currently seeing economic benefits from this:
Healthy container port throughput growth suggests Europe is – so far at least – avoiding the worst effects of the U.S.-China trade war.
As reported by FreightWaves, ongoing global business uncertainty is proving a drag on Europe’s economic prospects. Even so, total container imports to Europe are forecast to increase by 3.1% in 2019, with a 2.6% gain in North Europe and a 3.9% increase in the Med-Black Sea region, according to the latest Global Port Tracker for North Europe produced by Germany-based Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) and U.S. analyst firm Hackett Associates. …
“European exporters may even be rejoicing: The mutual tariff increases between China and the U.S. make European products more competitive in both markets,” added Maatsch. “At the same time, Chinese and American exporters may seek to increasingly sell their production in Europe so European imports may also gain.
“No reason for malicious joy though. The trade diversion effects will only persist as long as the trade conflict intensifies and if European products are targeted by new trade barriers, this will have a direct impact on containerized trade.” 09/08/19 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/port-report-are-europes-box-ports-gaining-from-the-us-china-trade-war
Yes, one of the affects of the trade war is getting China to look more to Europe. But, yes, Europe has risks as well.
Notice something from the South China Morning Post:
The trade war has changed US-China ties forever, so Beijing is building bridges to the EU through the belt and road
9 September 2019
What if the US-China trade war ends in stalemate, as seems likely? …
China needs overseas markets more than the US does. Above all it needs wealthy and sophisticated capital and consumer goods markets if the country’s industrial and technological revolution is to continue. There is, for now, only one place to look for those outside the US, and that is in Europe.
The Belt and Road Initiative can be seen as having anticipated at least a partial severing of US-China economic relations by creating infrastructure links across Central Asia from China to Western and Eastern Europe. In this sense, China’s new sphere of economic influence is already in the making. …
China does not yet have a formal free trade agreement with the European Union but Beijing can be expected to step up efforts to achieve such an agreement in the light of the US-China trade stand-off. The logic for doing so is all the more strong given the belt and road plan’s advance into Italy, Greece, etc. …
China is the EU’s second-biggest trading partner behind the United States and the EU is China’s biggest trading partner. The EU and China launched negotiations for an investment agreement in 2013 but a wider economic partnership to replace existing bilateral accords will likely be sought now.
It is all the more likely given that China will be a key member of the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) embracing China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand plus the 10 Asean states, which is due to be signed this year or early 2020. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025887/trade-war-has-changed-us-china-ties-forever-so-beijing-building
A few weeks back, CNBC noted that there is a much riskier trade conflict for the US, and it involves Europe:
A trade war with Europe would be larger and more damaging than Washington’s dispute with China
The United States has more to lose from a full-blown trade war with the EU than it does with its current conflict with China, experts have told CNBC.
President Donald Trump has kept up his tough rhetoric against the European Union despite focusing on Chinese tariffs in recent months. But his administration is due to decide in November whether to impose duties on one of most important industries in Europe: autos.
There have already been tariffs on European steel and aluminum — which led the bloc to impose duties of 25% on $2.8 billion of U.S. products in June 2018, and, there’s an ongoing dispute regarding Airbus and Boeing — but experts believe a wider spat with Europe would be much more damaging than the current tit-for-tat with China. Leaders of the G-7, the world’s seven largest economies, are due to talk global trade at a meeting in France later this week.
“EU-U.S. trade matters most. It is by far the biggest single bilateral trade flow in the world,” Florian Hense, an economist at Berenberg, told CNBC via email.
“Counting exports and imports of goods and services, U.S.-EU bilateral trade exceeded that between the U.S. and China in 2018 by more than 70%,” he added.
Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative shows that in 2018, the U.S. imported $683.9 billion of EU goods and $557.9 billion from China. However, looking at U.S. exports, these reached $574.5 billion to Europe and only $179.2 billion to China. These figures included both goods and services.
“In 2018, the U.S. exported more than three times more to the EU than to China,” Hense said, adding that the region could therefore hit back hard against Washington. …
US-EU economies are already struggling
Furthermore, both the U.S. and Europe cannot afford a trade war at this stage.https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/why-a-us-trade-war-with-europe-would-be-more-damaging-than-china.html
In addition to the above concerns, it remains my view that because of Donald Trump’s trade policies, his support of Brexit, and Brexit itself, the Europeans will ultimately consider them as part of their justification to take ‘successful’ military action against the US (Daniel 11:39) and the UK (Daniel 8:24-25; Isaiah 17:3).
The EU is making trade deals all over the globe. And it is planning to take its own steps against the US in an effort to bolster its technology:
European Union officials have drawn up an aggressive 173-page plan to counter both President Donald Trump’s trade moves and American tech giants including Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook.
According to a document obtained by POLITICO, European Commission officials are pushing their president-elect, Ursula von der Leyen, to set up a European Future Fund that would invest more than $100 billion in equity stakes in high-potential European companies.
The goal: get Europe competing head-on with the American and Chinese tech giants it has lagged behind for decades.
They’re also advocating for Europe to show more grit in Trump’s trade war, saying the EU should slap tariffs unilaterally on the United States. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/22/europe-plan-trump-tech-companies-1472326
One major unintended consequence of Donald Trump’s trade policies and sanctions has been, and will be, pushing China and other nations to work more closely with Europe on trade matters.
Already, China is willing to work with Europe related to the World Trade Organization, as the USA is upset with it.
Now, consider the Belt and Road Initiative. As the South China Morning Post reported, it connects China to Europe. But since roads work both ways, it connects Europe to markets in Asia. And not just China.
Related to ‘connectivity’ between Europe and China, we put together the following video on our Bible News Prophecy:
China’s Silk Road and Babylon the Great
China has been embarking on a multi-trillion dollar project to build roads and ports to connect more of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe to it. This has been called the ‘Belt and Road Initiative,’ Silk Road Project, Silk Road 2.0, and the One Belt, One Road Initiative. While this is expected to benefit Chinese trade (as well as provide infrastructure for the gathering at Armageddon), could this also benefit the rise of Babylon the Great foretold in the Book of Revelation and scriptures in the Old Testament? What about the proposed Polar Silk Road? Will the benefits to Europe last or will the end time ‘daughter of Babylon’ possibly face invasion from nations involved with the Silk Road project? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues with scriptures from the Bible.
Here is a link to our video: China’s Silk Road and Babylon the Great.
While the Belt and Road Initiative (Silk Road project) increases China’s economic and political influence, the reality is that it will increase European influence in Asia.
I have long expected trade conflicts between the US and Europe. They will be a factor in the coming destruction of the USA, which the Bible prophesies (cf. Daniel 11:39).
Because of miscalculations with trade statements and policies from the USA, including insults and other actions by its President Donald Trump, Europe is ending up with more leverage.
Europe will take more steps to deal with trade matters.
The Bible shows, that for a time, a European ‘Babylon’ state will dominate world trade:
2 And he cried mightily with a loud voice, saying, “Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and has become a dwelling place of demons, a prison for every foul spirit, and a cage for every unclean and hated bird! 3 For all the nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth have become rich through the abundance of her luxury.” (Revelation 18:2-3).
But it obviously will not last.
But steps to do so, and to push aside USA dominance are taking place now.
Both the USA and China are making miscalculations in this trade dispute and will face costs that they did not really expect.
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