‘The Real End of Pax Americana’


A supporter from Europe tipped me off to the following from Mark Leonard:

The Real End of Pax Americana

June 13, 2022

The post–World War II international order is often described as a product of American strength. Together with its allies, a victorious United States imposed its will on the rest of the world, crafting institutions and norms that served its interests and assured its primacy. But to an often underappreciated degree, that order is also a product of the artificial weakness of Germany and Japan. For three-quarters of a century after 1945, both countries consciously eschewed great-power status and pursued pacifist approaches to foreign policy. At the heart of the postwar order, in other words, is the unique status of the world’s third- and fourth-largest economies. Although that order has come to seem natural to many in the West, it is predicated on an arguably unnatural condition: the forced pacification of two countries that—owing to geography, demography, and history—had predictably become regional hegemons in the prewar modern era.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and the growing antagonism between the United States and China—is threatening to upend that status quo and with it Pax Americana, which has held since the end of World War II. In response to Moscow’s aggression, Germany has fundamentally reoriented its foreign policy, pledging to radically increase defense spending and taking a hawkish line on Ukraine. And Japan, wary of China’s quest for regional hegemony, seems closer than ever to a similar transformation. …

In the short term, these shifts may precipitate a consolidation or even a revival of the West. … But if Germany stays on its new path and Japan embarks on a similar one, something like the opposite could happen as both countries become less dependent on the United States and more closely linked to their neighbors. Such a shift would profoundly alter not just the security order in Europe and Asia but the dynamics of the Western world—and at precisely the moment when World War II passes from memory into history. On the one hand, Pax Americana will give way to more cooperative regional security orders. On the other, the United States will have to reinvent its alliances, treating allies as real stakeholders rather than infantilized junior partners. The transition could be painful and difficult for Washington in the short term. But in the long term, these changes will be healthy for the global order and even for the United States itself.

Four days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the usually cautious German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a revolutionary speech announcing a zeitenwende—or “turning point,” roughly translated—in German foreign policy. So profound are the shifts he laid out that they could change the country’s very identity. Berlin decided to supply weapons to Ukraine after decades of resisting arming belligerents in any conflict zone, establish a 100 billion euro fund to upgrade its armed forces after years of dragging its feet on defense spending, and end its energy dependence on Russia after years of attempting to transform Russia through economic ties. The announcement of these fundamental changes has ignited a broader debate about what the zeitenwende will mean not just for different aspects of German policy but for the country’s broader role in the world. Some analysts see it as Germany belatedly waking up to its responsibilities after decades of geopolitical free-riding, but many others have been critical of the slow pace of change and fear the new policy will fall short of expectations. …


Over the years, Germany and Japan have had several national debates about becoming “normal powers” and have gradually moved in that direction. Both countries are now more active militarily than they have been in decades, but they still punch way under their economic weight. The war in Ukraine could change that, however.

For the first time in the postwar era, both Germany and Japan face unavoidable threats. After Germany was reunified in 1990, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl was fond of saying that the country was “surrounded only by friends and partners.” Now, there seems to be societal consensus in Germany that this has changed: even before Moscow launched its invasion, more than half of German respondents to a January 2022 poll claimed that Russia’s stance on Ukraine posed a large military threat to their country. And many Japanese fear that a war over Taiwan could be next.

German and Japanese guilt is dying out along with the last surviving perpetrators and victims of World War II.

Finally, Germany and Japan may no longer feel they can rely on the United States for their security. According to one recent poll, 56 percent of German respondents believe that in ten years, China will be a stronger power than the United States. Fifty-three percent said that Americans cannot be trusted after electing Donald Trump president in 2016, and 60 percent said Germany cannot always count on the United States to defend it and so must invest in European defense. These fears are shared among even the most Atlanticist segments of the elite. As Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to the United States, told me, “Germans are fortunate to have Biden in the White House, but Germany needs to have a plan B in case there are big changes to American politics.” He believes Germany should explore the possibility of a nuclear guarantee from France, something that would have been unthinkable even a few months ago.   

Doubts about American power and reliability are less openly articulated in Japan.

Analysts such as Robert Kagan have argued that Pax Americana could give way to global chaos. …

In Europe, U.S. retrenchment could yield greater sovereignty …

Greater German and Japanese assertiveness is likely to go hand in hand with U.S. retrenchment.

At the same time, Asia is likely to become more European.  …

Europeans will have to take more direct responsibility for security in eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Middle East. …

But as Germany and Japan become more powerful and more embedded in their respective regional security orders, they are likely to become more assertive in setting their own agendas. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2022-06-13/real-end-pax-americana

Yes, many of the points Mark Leonard brought up are valid.

There are profound changes taking place.

As far as Europe goes, yes, it will end up with more ties to Asia and be less dependent upon the USA. Yes, it will have more involvement with the Middle East (cf. Psalm 83:4-8; Daniel 9:26-27; 11:27; 11:40-43). And, yes, it is becoming more militaristic–which it is prophesied to do per Daniel 11:39-43 and Revelation 13:3-5.

Related to its new more militaristic direction, the Continuing Church of God (CCOG) put together the following video on our Bible News Prophecy YouTube channel::


Is the European Beast Growing Horns?

Does the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have prophetic ramifications? What about Ezekiel 38? Are we seeing a ‘historic shift’ in Europe to move towards more unity? What about non-EU nations like Sweden and Switzerland? Is Germany’s announcement to double its military spending to 100 million euros a big deal? Does the Bible tell of changes coming to Europe for it to rise up as a Babylonian unity successful military power? What about the United States of America and its British-descended allies? Could USA sanctions against Russia, including SWIFT restrictions, decrease international demand for USA dollars and cause inflation? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more in this video.

Here is a link to our video: Is the European Beast Growing Horns?

The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine also showed that USA threats against Russia did not lead to peace. Also, the imposition of the type of sanctions from the USA, the further weaponization of its dollar, and its willingness to freeze and or steal assets of the Russia government and wealthy Russian citizens is having impact on China and many other nations.

As far as the end of “Pax Americana” goes, that is something I specifically warned about years ago.

For example, on November 23, 2019, I posted the following on this COGwriter Church of God News page:

Yes, there is soon coming an end to PAX Americana. The British Empire ended and the end of the Anglo-American world order is getting closer.

Here is a definition of Pax Americana from Wikipedia:

Pax Americana (Latin for “American Peace”, modeled after Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, and Pax Mongolica) is a term applied to the concept of relative peace in the Western Hemisphere and later the world beginning around the middle of the 20th century, thought to be caused by the preponderance of power enjoyed by the United States. (Pax Americana. Wikipedia, accessed 11/23/19)

The end of US dominance is getting closer.

Many leaders in Europe see this and are working to replace USA hegemony with a world order Europe will control.

The Bible teaches that will happen (cf. Revelation 13).

The situation in the Middle East will be a factor.

A European leader will arise promising some version of Pax Europa.

He will be involved with a peace deal in the Middle East:

26 And the people of the prince who is to come
Shall destroy the city and the sanctuary.
The end of it shall be with a flood,
And till the end of the war desolations are determined.
27 Then he shall confirm a covenant with many for one week;
But in the middle of the week
He shall bring an end to sacrifice and offering.
And on the wing of abominations shall be one who makes desolate,
Even until the consummation, which is determined,
Is poured out on the desolate (Daniel 9:26-27).

The above is referring to a deal or covenant that has a time element attached to it confirmed by a “prince” who is European. We know this is a European because it was a European force that destroyed the city of Jerusalem and temple in 70 A.D. This prince will get some credit for a peace deal–even though the Bible later shows he will essentially betray the deal (Daniel 11:31).

But before he betrays it, the ‘Prince’ will rise up further while promising peace.

Notice what the Bible teaches:

25 And through his policy also he shall cause craft to prosper in his hand; and he shall magnify himself in his heart, and by peace shall destroy many: he shall also stand up against the Prince of princes; but he shall be broken without hand. (Daniel 8:25, KJV).

23 And after the league is made with him he shall act deceitfully, for he shall come up and become strong with a small number of people. 24 He shall enter peaceably, even into the richest places of the province; and he shall do what his fathers have not done, nor his forefathers: he shall disperse among them the plunder, spoil, and riches; and he shall devise his plans against the strongholds, but only for a time. (Daniel 11:23-24, NKJV)

So this leader gives people the impression that there will be “peace” and is involved in some type of deal. This is the same leader that confirms the covenant in Daniel 9:27. The term is translated as “peace” in Daniel 8:25 is from the Hebrew term shalvah and essentially means security. In other words, this leader will destroy “many” who are under the impression that they are secure because of some type of security and/or trade arrangement. Such arrangements are now commonly referred to as peace deals or treaties.

It will be the end of Pax Americana.

And this will not end well for the USA (Daniel 11:39) nor its British-descended allies (cf. Isaiah 17:3; Daniel 8:24-25). Nor many of the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (Daniel 11:40-43).

However, because less and less understand biblical prophecies, we will see the temporary rise of Pax Europa, which will ultimately also end in disaster for Europe (cf. Daniel 11:44-45; Jeremiah 50:41-43). (Thiel B. US decision on West Bank settlements is unsettling to many: End of Pax Americana? COGwriter, November 23, 2019)

The Anglo-American world order that we have basically had for over two centuries is coming to an end.

The “Pax Americana” will be gone.

The USA, itself, is prophesied to be conquered and taken over (Daniel 11:39), as well as its British-descended allies.

That is NOT something that Mark Leonard mentioned in his article. It will also be worse than people like Fareed Zakaria (whose tweet is at the beginning of this post) believe will happen as well.

But according to the Bible, that will come to pass.

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. Two related sermon are available: Identifying the USA and its Destruction in Prophecy and Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no Final End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West? Here is a version in the Spanish language: ¿Quién es el Rey del Occidente? ¿Por qué no hay un Rey del Occidente en la profecía del tiempo del fin? A related sermon is also available: The Bible, the USA, and the King of the West.
Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction Can the USA survive two full presidential terms? In what ways are Joe Biden and Kamala Harris apocalyptic? This book has hundreds of prophecies and scriptures to provide details.  A Kindle version is also available and you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to your free Kindle reader app (or if you already have one or a Kindle),  you can go to: Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction (Kindle) to get the book in seconds.
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be: Are Chinese threats against Australia for real?
Will the Anglo-Saxon-Celtic Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
British are the Covenant People What do ‘British’ and ‘Britain’ mean in Hebrew? Are the descendants of the Anglo-Saxons people of the covenant? Does the British royal family connect to the throne of David? What does the Bible teach? What does history show us? Is there any DNA evidence related to British-Israelism? When did Christianity make it to the British Isles? Could Jeremiah have made it to the British Isles? What type of Christians made it to the British Isles? Did the last King of England believe in British Israelism?
The King’s Pedigree This is an article published by the Otago Witness in 1902 related to connections of the British Throne to the throne of King David of Israel. This also has some modern commentary inserted in italics.
THE QUEEN’S ROYAL DESCENT FROM KING DAVID THE PSALMIST This is a listing from Adam to the Kings of Judah through Queen Victoria put together in the 19th century. A list from 19th century to present is also included.
Canada in Prophecy: What Does Bible Prophecy,Roman Catholic Prophecy, and other Predictions Suggest About the Future of Canada? There are prophecies that suggest involvement with Canada. And many are not positive about its future. A sermon of related interest is also available: Canada in Prophecy.
Australia and New Zealand in Prophecy Do biblical prophecies help explain the wealth blessings for Australia and New Zealand? Might cursings from disobedience come in the 21st century? Here is a link to a related sermon: Australia and New Zealand: Origins and Prophecy.
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? In the Spanish language check out ¿Quién es el Rey del Norte? Here are links to two related videos: The King of the North is Alive: What to Look Out For and The Future King of the North.
The Great Monarch: Biblical and Greco-Roman Catholic Prophecies Is the ‘Great Monarch’ of Greco-Roman Catholic prophecies endorsed or condemned by the Bible? Two sermons of related interest are also available: Great Monarch: Messiah or False Christ? and Great Monarch in 50+ Beast Prophecies.
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe? Here is a link to a video titled: Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?
European Technology and the Beast of Revelation Will the coming European Beast power would use and develop technology that will result in the taking over of the USA and its Anglo-Saxon allies? Is this possible? What does the Bible teach? Here is a related YouTube video: Military Technology and the Beast of Revelation.
The Large Hadron Collider has Military Potential Some say this European project is only peaceful. So why is it working on capturing antimatter? Here is a link to a related video: Could the Large Hadron Collider lead to destruction?
Must the Ten Kings of Revelation 17:12 Rule over Ten Currently Existing Nations? Some claim that these passages refer to a gathering of 10 currently existing nations together, while one group teaches that this is referring to 11 nations getting together. Is that what Revelation 17:12-13 refers to? The ramifications of misunderstanding this are enormous. A related sermon is titled Ten Kings of Revelation and the Great Tribulation.
The ‘Peace Deal’ of Daniel 9:27 This prophecy could give up to 3 1/2 years advance notice of the coming Great Tribulation. Will most ignore or misunderstand its fulfillment? Here is a link to a related sermon video Daniel 9:27 and the Start of the Great Tribulation.

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